"Some Day This War Wl End. THEN... 



WW 



CHESTER DAVIS GIVES LONG-RANGE VIEW OF 

 PROBLEMS FACING AGRICULTURE IN POST-WAR 

 ECONOMY. GIVES FORTHRIGHT VIEWS ON OUTLOOK 



WpOME day this war will end. Then 

 ^ the demand for farm products 

 will be radically changed. Then we 

 will have millions more men to employ 

 than ever worked in peacetime before; 

 we will have the greatest endowment 

 of natural and mechanical resources 

 known to the world ; and we will have 

 the monetary basis for expanded pro- 

 ductive activity far greater than ever 

 existed heretofore. And we will have 

 an almost unlimited gap of unfilled 

 human wants and needs. 



That is the outlook I want you to 

 keep in mind as background for my 

 talk, while I try to throw a flashlight 

 on two parts of the general picture 

 which seem to me to be points that are 

 very important. 



Point No. 1 : I want to talk 

 plainly about some problems and 

 dangers which, unless you over- 

 come them, may seriously weaken 

 the usefulness of farm leadership 

 to the nation in the years ahead. 

 The American Farm Bureau Fed- 

 eration must not only make sure 

 that its policies are foursquare 

 with the broad national interest; 

 it must do a better job than it has 

 been doing to convince the rest of 

 the country that this is the case. 

 Point No. 2 : We have seen how 

 a nation fighting for its life can 

 employ all of its human and ma- 



terial resources in high and sus- 

 tained produaion. We know that 

 this all-out effort has meant a high 

 and widely distributed national in- 

 come. The problem that confronts 

 us is to continue high levels of 

 production and income after the 

 nation has turned from war to 

 peace. 



.... Returning now for a closer look 

 at Point No. '1 : What you and other 

 farm organizations do now to fit agri- 

 cultural policy into national policy will 

 affect decisively your influence in the 

 postwar years. You need to take a stand 

 on wartime prices for farm products, 

 and to make your position clear. As I 

 discuss that question, and the accom- 

 panying one of food subsidies that has 

 gripped the nation's attention, I expect 

 that some of you will not like every- 

 thing I say. 



The general public believes the 

 American Farm Bureau is opposing the 

 administration's program of general 

 food subsidies because you want a 

 chance to raise the level of farm prices. 

 If that is not your position - — and I do 

 not believe that it is — then you have 

 failed in getting across to the non- 

 farming public and to press and radio 

 just what your position is. 



I am not trying to settle the argu- 

 ment over whether the advanced prices 



12 



of farm products has exceeded the rise 

 in factory workers' income that has 

 taken place, or vice versa. A lot de- 

 pends on the date at which you start 

 your comparison. 



Personally, I am convinced that 

 a degree of improvement in farm 

 prices over those prevailing in the 

 pre-war years 1935-39 should have 

 jbeen permitted without assuming 

 that the adjustment called for 

 wage increases. Bear in mind that 

 the rates of pay of factory workers 

 for the period 1935-39 were the 

 highest in history up to that time 

 and 14 per cent above the level of 

 1929. In contrast, farm prices were 

 still at depression levels and 27 per 

 cent below 1929. 



The point 1 want to make tonight, 

 however, is that the general level of 

 farm prices in 1943 has been high 

 enough to yield a cash farm income 

 between 19 and 20 billion dollars as 

 against 8.7 billions in., 1939 and 11.3 

 billions in 1929. 



. . . For 1910-14 the average net 

 (not gross, not cash, but net") income 

 is estimated at $3.6 billions, for 1935- 

 39 $4.7 billions, for 1941 $6.3 billions, 

 for 1942 $9.5 billions, and for 1943 

 $12.5 billions. 



.... In the interest of long-time farm 

 welfare any further marked increase in 

 the general level of farm prices is un- 

 desirable. Unless their production costs 

 materially increase, farmers for their 

 own and general welfare should join 

 wholeheartedly to hold their prices in 

 check. For one thing, further increases 

 would add to the danger of inflation in 

 farm real estate prices that already is 

 on the horizon. 



I am talking about the general 

 level of farm prices. Flexibility in 

 adjustment between conunodides • 

 is needed and is almost wholly 

 lacking in the present OPA-WFA- 

 Economic Stabilization setup. Some 

 prices have ranged higher than 

 necessary to get needed production 

 and yield satisfactory returns: 

 others are lower than they should 



^ I. A. A. RECORD 



