JOBS 



AFTER THE WAR 



Excerpts from the Address of 



PAUL G. HOFFMAN 



Chairman, Committee for Economic Development 



At lAA Annual Meeting, Nov. 30 



SPEAKING for industry, may I say 

 that the history of this country be- 

 tween World Wars I and II clearly 

 showed that unless our seven million 

 farmers are faring well, any prosperity 

 on the business front is ephemeral and 

 short-lived. Conversely, it seems obvious 

 to me that the great hope for prosperity 

 for agriculture in the postwar period lies 

 in a high level of productive employment 

 in the trades, commerce and industry. 

 What I am saying is that for our mutual 

 well-being, it is essential that we match 

 the high level production which always 

 obtains in the agricultural field with high 

 level production in the industrial field. 



56 Million Jobs 



If there can be provided in the postwar 

 period a sufficient volume of well-paid 

 peacetime jobs, the general public will 

 have little or no interest in proposals for 

 overall economic planning. There is to- 

 day general agreement among economists 

 and statisticians that an employment level 

 in the immediate postwar period of be- 

 tween 53 and 56 million civilian jobs 

 will be eminently satisfactory. This as- 

 sumes an additional two million men will 

 be in the armed services. Involved in 

 the reaching of this goal is the creation 

 of from seven to ten million more peace- 

 time jobs than were available in 1940, 

 our last peacetime year. 



To bring those additional jobs into 

 being will take more than speeches about 

 full employment, or resolutions demand- 

 ing "jobs for all." All employment falls 

 into two categories : ( 1 ) employment by 

 the government, and (2) employment in 

 the field of private endeavor. 



Many loose statements are being made 

 suggesting that if jobs are not available 

 in the field of private endeavor the gov- 

 ernment will, of course, have to supply 

 them. Perhaps we had best take a look 

 at the potential postwar government em- 

 ployment before we put too much faith 

 in these suggestions. In 1940 there were 

 approximately three million three hun- 



dred thousand individuals employed in 

 regular government establishments — 

 federal, state and local. There were 

 about two million nine hundred thou- 

 sand employed on WPA, NYA, and CCC, 

 and similar governmental units. There 

 were approximately 97,000 employed on 

 public works projects under the PWA. 

 By the end of 1946 there might be as 

 many as four million employed in reg- 

 ular government establishments. As for 

 employment on public works projects, the 

 best guess I can make after exhaustive in- 

 vestigation is that there might be as many 

 as two million jobs available. It all nets 

 down to just this • — that if we push 

 along with our public works planning we 

 may have available useful jobs on the 

 government payrolls totaling almost the 

 same number we had on those payrolls in 

 1940. That's real progress, because in 

 1940 half the employment was of the 

 "made-work" variety. Still, unless we 

 want to go back to "made- work," I be- 

 lieve it is fair to say that we cannot look 

 to the government for a single one of 

 those seven to ten million new produc- 

 tive jobs we need. 



If we cannot — let alone should not 

 — look to government for the millions 

 of new postwar peacetime jobs that will 

 be needed, then the conclusion is inescap- 

 able that those jobs must be made avail- 

 able in the field of private endeavor — 

 manufacturing, agriculture, commerce, 

 trades and sen'ices. Perhaps of the sev- 

 en to ten million jobs needed we can 

 look to some five hundred thousand in 

 the field of self-employment. 



Need Expanded Production 



As a collateral conclusion, it also 

 seems obvious that the one sound way in 

 which those jobs can be made available, 

 if we are to maintain or advance our 

 standard of living, is through a record- 

 breaking expansion in the output of 

 goods and services over the last {peace- 

 time year of 1940. That increase will 

 have to be somewhere between 30 and 



Paul G. Hoiiman is chairman of the Com- 

 mittee ior Economic Development and 

 president of the Studebaker Corporation. 



45%. Stated in terms of 1943 prices, 

 it means we must achieve a gross output 

 of from $155 to $170 billion. Just as a 

 matter of information, that's equivalent 

 to $130 to $140 billion in terms of 1940 

 prices. I should also like to make clear 

 that I am talking about gross national 

 output rather than net national income, 

 which is, of course, a considerably lower 

 figure. 



The fact that a goal in output of $155 

 to $170 billion is needed in the postwar 

 period does not prove, of course, that it 

 is attainable. No one can guarantee it. 

 However, it is the studied opinion of the 

 Research Committee of the Committee 

 for Economic Development that this goal 

 can be reached — and perhaps exceeded 

 — in the first postwar decade provided 

 America's two million employers are 

 ready when the green light is given for 

 civilian production, with bold, smart 

 plans; and provided the economic climate 

 is favorable to the expansion of present 

 businesses and to the starting of hun- 

 dreds of thousands of new businesses 

 quickly. A country that shocked the 

 living daylights out of Mussolini, Hit- 

 ler and HirohitQ by raising and equip- 

 ping a ten-million man army and a two- 

 ocean navy in less than two years can 

 take this task in its stride — if it 

 achieves the same unity in the winning 

 of the peace that it has in the winning 

 of the war, and if it works with the same 

 speed. 



C.E.D.s Work 



The Committee for Economic Develop- 

 ment has been endeavoring to contribute 

 to the winning of the peace by carrying 

 on a two-phase operation. Through its 

 Field Development Division it has at- 

 tempted to stimulate and assist America's 

 two million employers in the making of 



20 



I. A. A. RECORD 



