v. 



: 



♦if 



•1^ 



4|^ 



necessary to prevent disturbance of that 



confidence are also justified. 



For several reasons agriculture 

 has a special interest in main- 

 taining confidence in the worth 

 of money. Among these reasons 

 are: 



1. In a period of rapidly rising 

 prices not all prices rise even- 

 ly, and hence many inequitable 

 changes occur. (Inequitable changes 

 also occur during periods of rap- 

 idly falling prices.) 



2. American agriculture is now 

 overexpanded in relation to do- 

 mestic needs. While certain foods 

 such as meats and some dairy prod- 

 ucts might temporarily command 

 considerably higher prices, if all 

 price controls were immediately re- 

 moved at the close of the war, 

 the exchange position of agricul- 

 ture in general would soon be- 

 come vastly more difficult as costs 

 of industrial goods and urban serv- 

 ices spiraled. 



total of 920 new farm workers in that 

 county after the war. Of these open- 

 ings, 180 are expected to be filled by 

 returning veterans and others absent 

 for war work; 520 will probably be 

 filled by boys now on farms just reach- 

 ing working age. This leaves a net 

 shortage of 220 workers — 220 jobs 

 which will be available after the war. 



A similar study of a southern Illinois 

 county shows that there is a current 

 shortage of 525 farm workers and that 

 1 05 workers now on farms are expected 

 to leave, but returning veterans and 

 war workers together with boys com- 

 ing on total 1050. This makes an ex- 

 pected net surplus of 420 farm work- 

 ers at the close of the war. Hence, it 

 appears that different farming-type 

 areas of the state will vary greatly in 

 their ability to furnish farm jobs in 

 the postwar period. Of this I will 

 have more to say later. 



In every county so far studied how- 

 ever, marked needs are shown for 

 manufactured equipment, new build- 



EXCERPTS FROM ADDRESS BY 



DEAN H. P. RUSK 



AT lAA ANNUAL MEETING DEC. 1 



3. All se\ere inflations have 

 been followed by deflation with 

 its inescapable attendants, unem- 

 ployment and collapse of the farm- 

 ers' markets. 



4. Rural people have their full 

 share of unsatisfied needs which 

 will go a long way toward creat- 

 ing steady urban employment. Cur- 

 rently they have purchasing power 

 and will use it if they are able 

 to get their money's worth. This 

 they will not be able to do if in- 

 dustrial wages and other costs sky- 

 rocket. 



Farm Demand For Goods 



. . . The extent of this backed-up 

 farmer demand for both labor and 

 goods is partially indicated by the first 

 tabulations of results secured by a 

 survey that the College of Agriculture 

 has had underway for the past four 

 months. In one northern Illinois 

 county this survey indicates that there 

 are about 300 farm operators ranging 

 in age from 60 to 69, and that there 

 are 40 who are over 70. Of these older 

 farm operators, 180 are expected to 

 retire soon after the war ; 220 other 

 laborers are expected to leave and 

 there is a current shortage of farm 

 labor of 520 men on a 12-month basis. 



This makes an opportunity for a 



ing, long overdue major repairs, and 

 other items the furnishing of which 

 will be an important factor in the sup- 

 port of industrial employment. For 

 example, the farmers of one county say 

 they need and want to buy 1855 trac- 

 tors, 210 corn planters, 525 wagons, 

 665 stoves and 455 deep freeze units. 

 These same farmers are planning to 

 build or remodel 210 homes. The 

 foregoing are just a few items I have 

 picked at random from the surveys that 

 are now being analyzed. 



But they are sufficient to indi- 

 cate the potential demand backed 

 up on the farms of America, a de- 

 mand that will do much to sustain 

 industrial employment — IF — 

 if the farmers can get their mon- 

 ey's worth — if the cost of these 

 things the rural people of America 

 need and want can be purchased 

 at prices reasonably well in line 

 with prices of products the farm- 

 ers will have to sell. Farmers are 

 now in much better position to be 

 customers for industrial goods and 

 services than they were after the 

 last war and they will buy freely 

 if they are encouraged by what 

 they believe is a sound national 

 business activity that promises a 

 stable market for their products in 

 postwar years. 



Interdependence of Groups 



. . . Looking beyond the demobiliza- 

 tion and immediate postwar periods 

 we must recognize that in a progressive 

 society, standards of living rise as 

 larger percentages of the population are 

 released from the pursuit of the pri- 

 mary necessities of life and are thus 

 enabled to contribute to society 

 through the production of other goods 

 and services. This can happen only 

 where there is a continually increasing 

 efficiency in agriculture. The effi- 

 ciency of American agriculture has in- 

 creased continuously from colonial 

 days when 95 out of 100 families lived 

 on farms until the present when only a 

 little more than 20 pier cent live on 

 farms. Technological developments 

 during the war or those about to 

 emerge warrant the belief that agri- 

 culture may be on the verge of further 

 revolutionary changes. 



In the light of these facts and the 

 necessity of adjusting production to 

 f>ostwar needs, it seems clear that agri- 

 culture should not be expected to pro- 

 vide opportunities for more than its 

 fair preportion of returning veterans. 

 Neither should it be expected to fur- 

 nish a haven for large numbers of in- 

 dustrial workers who may become un- 

 employed when war plants close. 



Differences Between Agriculture and 

 Industry 



. . . That the gross money returns 

 from this market for agricultural prod- 

 ucts are closely related to industrial 

 activity is indicated by the fact that 

 over the past 20 years one billion dol- 

 lars of national income has meant 10"' 

 to 130 million dollars of farm income. 

 However, there is not the same type of 

 relationship between the prices of agri- 

 cultural and industrial products. How 

 prices of 10 major groups of commodi- 

 ties reacted to declining industrial ac- 

 tivity during the depression of the 

 early 1930's and how much more ad- 

 versely the prices of agricultural prod- 

 ucts were affected than those of indus- 

 try are shown by the following tabula- 

 tion of changes in production and 

 wholesale prices from 1929 to 1933.* 



Drop in Drop in 

 Wholesale Produc- 

 Prices 



Commodity 



Agricultural implements 15*51 



Motor vehicles 



Cement 



Iron and steel ....- 



Auto tires _ 



Textile products 

 Food products _. 

 Leather 



I6^c 

 18% 

 20% 

 33% 

 45% 

 49% 

 50% 



Petroleum 56*;^. 



Agricultural commodities _. 63% 



tion 

 80% 

 80% 

 65% 

 83% 

 70% 



r 30% 



i 14% 

 .20% 

 .ZO'Tr 



•Assembled by Gardiner 

 to Congress in 1935. 



C. Means and presentctf 

 {Continued on page 41) 



DECEMBER, 1944 



25 



