Studied by Fanners; They're Not Pessimistic 



ARE farm prices, now on the decline, 

 going to tumble us into another 

 farm depression? 



No! Not this time. 



That was the well-considered answer 

 the 4,373 farmers got from speakers 

 at Farm and Home Week at Urbana. 

 The 1947 registration was the second 

 highest in the records going back to 

 1911. Highest on record was 4966 in 

 1942. 



These Illinois farmers took home 

 a pretty good picture of the agricul- 

 tural outlook for the coming months 

 after attending lectures, looking over 



A cut-away model of an internal com- 

 bustion engine was a popular object 

 of Interest at the Farm and Home 

 Week machinery exhibit. Ora Denny, 

 (left) McLean, and Jess Smith, Taze- 

 well, take a look. 



grain and machinery exhibits, exchang- 

 ing views among themselves, and talk- 

 ing to farm advisers. 



Prices for farm products, backed by 

 a healthy, strong demand and a 90 per 

 cent parity pledge, look good for the 

 rest of this year, speakers said. They 

 admitted though, that prices probably 

 will drop a good bit this summer in 

 many crops. 



Dr. L. J. Norton, professor of agri- 



cultural economics at the U. of I., said 

 one reason that farm incomes are like- 

 ly to be lower is that farmer's costs 

 will be higher in 1947 than in 1946. 



"Costs lag behind prices of such 

 primary products as farm produce; so 

 costs will hold up after farm prices 

 fall. Even though incomes are lowered, 

 however, they will still be at a high 

 level judged by prewar standards," he 

 explained. 



Dr. Norton's other predictions were : 

 "Meat animals — cattle and hogs — are 

 now high in price and with the in- 

 creased production which will follow 

 from the conversion of our large corn 

 crop into meat will certainly be lower. 



"Butter and other products which 

 classify as fats are high in price and 

 will probably be lower. 



"The price of grain will be influ- 

 enced by the size of the 1947 harvests. 



"Prices of farm products may aver- 

 age lower a year from now by perhaps 

 20 to 23 per cent." 



Dr. Norton added, however, "I do 

 not think 1947 is the year to cut back 

 on agricultural output." 



Looking ahead, Dr. G. L. Jordan, U. 

 of I. professor of agricultural eco- 

 nomics, said he didn't think prices 

 would slump to the 1935-39 level. 



"We are not going to voluntarily 

 bring on a serious deflation and the 

 supply of money in the form of de- 

 posits and money in circulation is large 

 enough to maintain the price level of 

 farm products at a level 25 to 50 per 

 cent higher than the 1935-39 average," 

 Dr. Jordan said. 



In general, the farm economists 

 agreed that the corn belt farmer will be 

 protected this time from the price de- 

 cline and unbalance in parity that 

 wrecked them in the '20's and again 

 in the '30's. 



This doesn't mean that an individual 

 farmer won't get nipped if he steps 

 out now that prices are falling and 

 piles up a big debt, as he might in 

 buying a farm. 



Savings of the war and early post- 

 war period have tempted farmers and 

 others to bid farm land into the clouds. 

 Dr. C.L. Stewart, university land econo- 

 mist, warned. 



"A land price recession of not to 

 exceed 20 per cent by 1951 can be re- 

 garded as within the possibilities in 

 certain parts of Illinois and adjoining 

 states," Dr. C. L. Stewart, U. of I. land 

 economist predicted. 



"These are parts in which prices for 

 farm lands have already come within 

 about 15 per cent of the 1920 peak, or 

 may come within that range of the 

 1920 peak in the intervening time." 

 Dr. Stewart said he thought the op- 

 timism of land buyers may have al- 

 ready reached its peak or may do so 

 within a matter of months. 



In his talk on adjusting to post-war 

 operations, P. E. Johnston, college of 

 agriculture economist, also urged farm- 

 ers not to go in debt without good 

 reason. 



"Keep your bonds," Johnston ad- 

 monished. "Seventy-five dollars spent 

 later will buy more goods than $100 

 spent now." 



Since Illinois farmers in 1946 had 



A hydraulic control attachment for ad- 

 justing drawn implements interests G. 

 C. Leipold and J. C. Becker, both of 

 Wabash county, during Form and 

 Home Week. 



CUT BACK ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION:" DR. L J. NORTON 



MARCH, 1947 



