H«nry Johnson, cattle saleimon for the Chicago Preducori, tolli of cottlo fooding pros- 

 poets during fall livosteck outlook mooting at Ottawa. It was ono of many hold In 



countios throughout tho stato. 



FARM PRICE OUTLOOK 



By JIM THOMSON, lAA RECORD Asst. Editor 



PRICES for most farm products are 

 expected to be high for the rest 

 of 1947 and probably through the 

 1947-48 feeding season. This was 

 the opinion expressed at annual 

 fall livestock outlook meetings 

 throughout the state last month. 



Conducting the meetings on the 

 shape of things to come were county 

 Farm Bureaus in cooperation with the 

 University of Illinois extension service 

 and fieldmen and salesmen from live- 

 stock producer agencies. 



At the Ottawa meeting, La Salle 

 county cattle and hog feeders were 

 told that prices can be expected to re- 

 main high through 1948 because of 

 high foreign demand, high domestic 

 incomes and resulting high domestic 

 demand, and because of the short feed 

 crop this year. 



It was forecast that supplies of feed- 

 ing grains for the coming season will 

 be tight if not critical. Prices of 

 grains are expected to be high in re- 

 lation to prices of livestock. This un- 

 favorable price ratio of feed to live- 

 stock is expected to bring about much 

 shorter supplies of meat in 1948 and 

 probably high-level prices, it was pre- 

 dicted. 



"This year," said Henry Johnson, 

 cattle salesman for the Chicago Pro- 

 ducers, "will be like the last few years 

 in feeder buying. There is not an 

 abundance of rough feed and I see no 

 evidence of lower prices in the next 



few months. I would advise the live- 

 stock feeder not to vary much from 

 his last year's program. 



"Late winter and early spring," 

 Johnson continued, "probably will 

 bring the heaviest marketing and 

 slightly lower prices but the upswing 

 will come again next summer." 



Prices for non-farm products are ex- 

 pected to remain high and may climb 

 further, affecting farm production 

 costs, it was explained at the outlook 

 meeting. 



Appealing to the cautious side of the 

 average stock feeder, speakers pointed 

 out that there also exists prospects for 

 lower consumer demand as follows: 



1 . Exports may be lower. A marked 

 reduction in exports of raw materials 

 and industrial products would weaken 

 business conditions and in turn lessen 

 the demand for farm products. 



2. Corporate businesses have spent 

 more than their net savings during the 

 past year in plant expansion and re- 

 modeling. 



3. Buying by businesses to accumu- 

 late inventories is about over. 



4. Although consumer incomes are 

 rising they are not rising as fast as 

 prices. Thus purchasing power is de- 

 clining and probably will continue to 

 do so in 1948. 



L. H. Simerl, former head of the 

 Illinois Agricultural Association de- 

 partment of research, and now mar- 

 keting fieldman for the University of 

 Illinois extension service, predicted 

 that better grades of cattle will bring 

 higher prices in 1948. He warned the 

 feeders, however, that the time will 

 come when the man with heavy 

 livestock holdings on hand may be hurt 

 by a sharp drop in prices. 



Feeders, Simerl said, should keep a 

 sharp eye on the future and unload at 

 the best possible time. Poor times to 

 hold livestock may be foreseen in dan- 

 ger signals which herald trouble ahead, 

 he said. 



Simerl listed the danger signals as: 



1. Government restrictions on credit 



through its bank policy. 



2. Slackening demand in the automo- 



bile industry. 



3. Severe labor disturbances, i.e., major 



strikes. 



4. General trend of prices downward. 



(Continued on page 18) i 



ILLINOIS FARM PRICES, WORLD WARS I and II and 

 POSTWAR PERIODS, MONTHLY 



{Source: Illinois Crop Reporting Service USDA) 



Par eont 



300 



220 L 



leo 



1O20 

 19li7 



1921 

 I9I48 



1922 

 19Jj9 



Mombors ol 

 Ing mochlm 

 month. Frc 

 socrotary; 

 York FB; P 

 FB; Prosidoi 

 dont Porry 



Roci 



PRESIDE 

 Quality 

 announced 

 by the Roc 

 amendment 

 dinance wl 

 sessment 

 weight of I 

 ducer. 



Followin 

 amendment 

 tion, repre; 

 in the Qua 

 jections anc 

 a hearing 

 Over 4'00 p 

 cil meeting 



The obje 

 Association 

 that the G 

 acted to pre 

 the consum 

 were in no 

 council,, the 



Followinj 

 was reconsi 

 rescinded it 



The Qua! 

 ed out th 

 strenuously 

 producers, 

 ordinance ii 

 step toward 

 milk supply 



L A. A. RECORD 



OCTOBER, 



