July ii, 1890.] 



SCIENCE. 



23 



its severe storms multiplied by reporters to too great an ex- 

 tent. It seems tiecessary to give these figures exactly as 

 they came out; and I shall be very much gratified if the 

 citizens or professional men of any State, feeling that their 

 State has not been given a fair show, should make for them- 

 selves a careful canvass of the State for tornado losses. T 

 shall be pleased to send to any such State a list of the dates 

 of all the tornadoes reported from that State, for the authori- 

 ties or those interested to verify the losses sustained. I 

 have attempted, by correspondence and in other ways, to 

 get more complete returns, but there seems to be great apa- 

 thy on this question. Possibly many have been very much 

 discouraged at the palpable exaggerations that have been 

 published. It seems to me that this matter is of the great- 

 est importance, and now is the time to establish an accurate 

 estimate of tornado losses which will be of permanent value 

 for comparison witli future years. Certainly more harm 

 will come from vague reports of doubtful tornadoes and ex- 

 aggerated statements of losses than can ever come from an 

 exact knowledge of the truth. There is no doubt that there 

 is a tornado evil. Let us learn its exact proportions, and 

 then people will know just what to prepare for. 



I do not think that in this table the States of New York 

 and Pennsylvania can be regarded as full-fledged tornado 

 States. Moreover, the comparative loss between fire and 

 tornadoes is not the same as in the other States, owing to 

 the relatively greater loss by fire in the cities in these two 

 States. I have therefore taken out these two States in the 

 final summing-up of the table. Kansas has been left in, 

 however. We find that in the fifteen remaining States the 

 relative loss was one-fourteenth ; that is to say, the loss by tor- 

 nadoes is seven per cent of that by fire. I think we may 

 safely say thai any fire insurance company would be entirely 

 secure if they increased their premium by eight per cent or 

 ten per cent, and assured the householder against loss from 

 tornadoes as well as fire, provided such insurance could be 

 placed through all the fifteen States, and for a term of four 

 or five years. As will be shown later, there seems to be 

 good evidence for believing that once in eleven years the 

 risk from tornadoes is somewhat increased for two or three 

 years. When we see that insurance companies, computing 

 from imperfect tornado losses multiplied by 25, have charged 

 the same for both fire and tornado insurance, it is not to be 

 wondered at that so few have taken the latter. Every one 

 has the evidence of his senses that tornado losses in his com- 

 munity in fifteen to twenty years, excepting a few of the 

 more disastrous tornadoes, have not equalled the average fire 

 loss in a single year. It is said that such matters generally 

 adjust themselves through a competition and rivalry be- 

 tween different companies, but it is very unfortunate for a 

 few who have to suffer while this adjustment is taking place. 

 Will it not be far more satisfactory to insured and insurers 

 if this subject be thoroughly ventilated, and a good idea of 

 the comparative risk between fire and tornadoes be arrived 

 at? It should not be forgotten that it is only by uniform 

 action and support of both fire and tornado insurance by the 

 people in the fifteen States, that any thing like an average 

 result can be obtained ; or, at least, this must be the case in 

 any one State, for there are a few lines of action in the State 

 which seem to be more favorable for the development of tor- 

 nadoes than the w^hole area of the State. H. A. Hazen. 



JI. PASTEUR AND HYDROPHOBIA.' 



It is now five years since M. Pasteur introduced to the medical 

 world his alleged cure for hydrophobia. If his aiuch-vaunted 

 discovery possesses all the merits which have been claimed for it, 

 he has earned a fair title to the gratitude of mankind. If, on the 

 other hand, it can be shown that all his theories depend for their 

 acceptance upon a number of very serious fallacies, and that his 

 alleged cures are no cures at all, inasmuch as in those cases the 

 disease never existed, and yet further, that in many cases his 

 treatment has actually induced hydrophobia where it was previ- 

 ously non-existent, M. Pasteur's claim to be regarded, on account 

 of this treatment, as a benefactor of his race, must fall to the 

 ground. 



It is now thirteen years since I first wrote a series of articles for 

 the Medical Press and Circular on this subject, and they were 

 subsequently published in book form under the title '-Rabies and 

 Hydrophobia." On that occasion I pointed out a very serious 

 fallacy underlying many cases of alleged cure of this disease, — 

 the fallacy of regarding persons bitten by healthy dogs as in dan- 

 ger of hydrophobia. At that time I mvestigated carefully a 

 number of cases of alleged cures by a clergyman residing near 

 Burnley, who had a great reputation in Lancashire for the cure 

 of hydrophobia. The result of my inquiry showed that the Rev. 

 Dr. Verity, the clergyman in question, had had a large number 

 (two thousand) of dog-bitten patients. A few of them had died 

 from hydrophobia after his treatment; but the majority escaped, 

 the reason being that they had been bitten by non- rabid dogs, or 

 had been bitten through clothing, etc. I inquired into numerous 

 other alleged cases of cure of hydrophobia, but always with the 

 same result; and I was thus led to formulate this proposition,— 

 ' that if any one obtained a reputation for the prevention of hy- 

 drophobia, and if all the dog-bitten sought or took this remedy, 

 the result would be statistically favorable." 



When M. Pasteur startled the world by his first statistics, I was 

 disposed to believe that in the hands of a man of such great sci- 

 entific fame a cure had been found. I could not, however, avoid 

 noticing the same fallacy running through his statistics which 

 characterized the returns made by the Rev. Dr. Verity. The dog- 

 bitten were certainly rushing to M. Pasteur; but the results were 

 robbed of much of their marvellous character if it could be shown, 

 that, owing to panic and fashion, great numbers bitten by non- 

 rabid dogs were seeking protection. 



This objection was supported by another, very powerful consid- 

 eration. I found, on carefully comparing the statistics given by 

 M. Pasteur with those of the years which preceded the introduc- 

 tion of his system, that the supposed rabid dog-bitten in France 

 had increased in extraordinary proportions: while, at the same 

 time, the average mortality from rabies in France bad shown but 

 little fluctuation. 



The arguments I have already given are such as will appeal at 

 once to the lay mind. There are, however, certain scientific ob- 

 jections which are still more cogent. The action of the supposed 

 prophylactic, when examined, resolved itself into pure empiri- 

 cism. A number of injections of rabbits' spinal cords, that had 

 been dried from fourteen to five days, were u'^ed, and the olApost 

 hoc argument was employed: because the children treated by 

 these injections did not subsequently develop hydrophobia, there- 

 fore the prophylactic was the remedy. This simple proposition 

 loses its force, however, when we note carefully what really hap- 

 pened. In one series, cords were used based on one formula. 

 Some ''cures" resulted, but deaths also occurred. Then the for- 

 mula was altered, and made more intensive, with the result that 

 a larger number of deaths occurred. A return was then made to 

 the first formula, with some slight modification. Deaths still 

 occurred. In explanation of the deaths, a general affirmation 

 was made that the cases that died came "too late." But, in look- 

 ing through the list of patients, I found that the cases which were 

 "cured" were, in many cases, of just as long duration, and that 

 with regard to them no assertion was made that they came "too 

 late." Take, for instance, the case of Lord Doneraile. If, in his 

 case, eleven days was too late for treatment, then all cases tb.it 



■ Extract from an article by Thomas M. Dolan, M.D., in The Contemporary 

 Review for July. 



