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SCIENCE. 



[Vol. XV. No. 366 



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Vol. XV. 



NEW YORK, Feeruabt 7, 1890. No. 366. 



CONTENTS: 



Instantaneous Photographt — 

 ■Some Food Substitutes and Adul- 

 terants 



The Origin of Human Faculty. . . 

 .Health Matters. 



The Nutritive Value of Boiled 



Milk 



' TrichinEe in Swine 



The Psychology of Epidemics . . . 



Editorial 



/The Gulf Stream and the 

 Weather. 



The Method of Multiple Work- 

 ing Hypotheses 



Among the Publishers 



Letters to the Editor. 

 Physical Fields 



H. A. Hazen; A. E. Dolbear 

 Pressure-Waves L. W. Ledyard 

 Influenza M. C. Collins 



Lightning Discharge Jos. Hall 



The warm mtiathee of this winter lias given rise to many 

 theories as to its cause, in some of whicli the Gulf Stream has 

 figured as an important factor. The Gulf Stream does change its 

 position to a sliglit amount, but not in the arbitrary manner or 

 to the gi'eat extent stated by some of the newspaper writers of 

 late. The usually accepted position of the sti-eam along our 

 coast is that fixed by Professor Bache, based upon temperatui'e 

 observations made by various officers in the navy, — Davis, Lee, 

 'Sands, Bache, Craven, Maffitt, and othei-s. The Gulf Sti-eam 

 probably has a vibratory motion, as evidenced by anchorages of the 

 coast survey steamer ' 'Blake' ' off Cape Hatteras, and off Rebecca 

 Shoal, Florida. Anchored there on the northern edge of the 

 stream, riding to the wind with a gentle current, the lattei 

 would suddenly become strong, and swing the vessel until she 

 was stern to the wind, to remain but a short time; and then, the 

 ..current becoming weaker, the wind would gain the ascendency. 

 CThis was repeated a number of times Lieut. Pillsbury, U.S.N. , 

 •jwho for five years was in command of the "Blake," believes 

 vthat the daily volume of the stream varies but little, except as 

 ■ due to declination of the moon; that its ti-ack through the ocean 

 is absolutely fixed by law ; that its vibration is periodic, although 

 ithe limit of the periodic change may vary to a ti-ifling amount. 

 Along the northern coast, however, it is not always on the sur- 

 face, but is, from an unknown cause, overrun by other currents. 

 'jlhe generally accepted belief, that a wind blowing across the 

 .current changes the position of its axis, is, Lieut. Pillsbury is 

 convinced, erroneous. Every temporary wind, however, does 

 transport water (chiefly by means of waves) , and with it goes its 

 heat or cold The fact of finding gulf-weed within a few miles 

 of Nantucket lightship does not so much pro re that the cun-ent is 

 nearer our shores as it does that winds have prevailed in the 

 .-direction fi-om which it comes. 



THE METHOD OF MULTIPLE WORKING HYPOTHESES.' 



As methods of study constitute the leading theme of our 

 session, I have chosen as a subject in measurable consonance 

 the method of multiple working hypotheses in its application 

 to investigation, instruction, and citizenship. 



There are two fundamental classes of study. The one con- 

 sists in attempting to follow by close imitation the processes 

 of previous thinkers, or to acquire by memorizing the results of 

 their investigations. It is merely secondary, imitative, or 

 acquisitive study. The other class is primary or creative 

 study. In it the effort is to think independently, or at least 

 individually, in the endeavor to discover new truth, or to make 

 new combinations of truth, or at least to develop an individual- 

 ized aggregation of truth. The endeavor is to think for one's 

 self, whether the thinking lies wholly in the fields of previous 

 thought or not. It is not necessary to this habit of study that 

 the subject-material should be new; but the process of thought 

 and its results must be individual and independent, not the 

 mere following of previous lines of thought ending in predeter- 

 mined results. The demonstration of a problem in Euclid 

 precisely as laid down is an illustration of the former; the 

 demonstration of the same proposition by a method of one's 

 own or in a manner distinctively individual is an illustration 

 of the latter; both lying entirely within the realm of the 

 known and the old. 



Creative study, however, finds its largest application in those 

 subjects in which, while much is known, more remains to be 

 known. Such are the fields which we, as naturalists, cultivate; 

 and we are gathered for the purpose of developing improved 

 methods lying largely in the creative phase of study, though 

 not wholly so. 



Intellectual methods have taken three phases in the history of 

 progress thus far. What may be the evolutions of the future 

 it may not be prudent to forecast. Naturally the methods we 

 now urge seem the h ghest attainable. These three methods 

 may be designated, first, the method of the ruling theory ; second, 

 the method of the working hypothesis ; and, third,' the method 

 of multiple working hypotheses. 



In the earlier days of intellectual development the sphere of 

 knowledge was limited, and was more nearly within the com- 

 pass of a single individual ; and those who assumed to be wise 

 men, or aspired to be thought so, felt the need of knowing, or 

 at least seeming to know, all that was known as a justification 

 of their claims. So, also, there grew up an expectancy on 

 the part of the multitude that the wise and the learned would 

 explain whatever new thing presented itself. Thus pride and 

 ambition on the one hand, and expectancy on the other, 

 developed the putative wise man whose knowledge boxed the 

 compass, and whose acumen found an explanation for every 

 new puzzle which presented itself. This disposition has propa- 

 gated itself, and has come down to our time as an intellectual 

 predilection, though the compassing of the entire horizon of 

 knowledge has long since been an abandoned affectation. As in 

 the earlier days, so still, it is the habit of some to hastily con- 

 jure up an explanation for every new phenomenon that presents 

 itself. Interpretation rushes to the forefront as the chief 

 obligation pressing upon the putative wise man. Laudable as 

 the effort at explanation is in itself, it is to be condemned 

 when it runs before a serious inquiry into the phenomenon 

 itself. A dominant disposition to find out what is, should 

 precede and crowd aside the question, commendable at a later 

 stage, "How came this so?" First full facts, then interpre- 

 tations. 



The habit of precipitate explanation leads rapidly on to the 

 development of tentative theories. The explanation offered for 

 a given phenomenon is naturally, under the impulse of self- 

 consistency, offered for like phenomena as they preseot them- 

 selves, and there is soon developed a general theory explanatory 

 of a large class of phenomena similar to the original one. This 

 general theory may not be supported by any further considera- 

 tions than those which were involved in the first hasty inspec- 



• Paper read before the Society of Western Naturalists, by President T. C. 

 Chamberlin, Oct. 25, 1889. 



