32 THECUBAREVIEW 



the whole area of a great modern sugar in April it was predicted that the volume 



central, have remarkabh^ changed old con- would not greatly exceed that of the pre- 



ditions. Given now the cane, whether ceding 3'ear. 



very good, indiiiferent, or bad, the extrac- Therefore it is abnormal weather which 

 tion of the juice goes on in weather which exercises the influence, and until it is seen 

 would have formerly ended the work. The what will be the condition it is useless to 

 results of last season were plain indica- guess upon the volume of the output. The 

 tions of this fact. Weeks and months acreage of cane has been increased net 

 after the normal grinding season was past only in the new, but also in the old sugar 

 the great mills in the eastern part of Cuba sections, and this year, like past, there will 

 kept working steadily at their cane. The be every efifort to grind every available 

 outcome, due to the new regime and also ton of cane, provided the price justifies. — 

 to extremely favorable weather, was the From United States Minister John B. Jack- 

 record output of sugar in Cuba, although son. 



SUGAR REVIEW 



Specially Written for The Cuba Review by Willett & Gray, of New York 



STEADY, BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN VALUES EXPECTED LATER — THE 

 MINIMUM CROP ESTIMATE IS 1 ,700,000 TONS 



Our last review for this magazine was dated December 19, 1910. At that date cen- 

 trifugals were quoted at 4 cents per pound. To-day's valuation is 3.67.5 cents per pound. 



Beet-root sugar was then 9s. %d. f. o. b. Hamburg, equal to 3.89 cents per pound for 

 centrifugals at New York, and is now 9s., equal to 3.88 cents for centrifugals at New- 

 York. 



At that time, beet sugar had already declined to the cost of production, leaving but 

 little margin for further decline, but in consideration of the larger estimates of the 

 European beet crop, it is quite possible that at some time during the campaign, when the 

 pressure of the sugar upon the market is most severe, the Hamburg price might decline 

 to 8s. 6d. f. o. b. per cwt. On the other hand, owing to the scarcity of sugars in the 

 United States at the close of the season, the price for Cuba centrifugals has been main- 

 tained with the end of the year, and it is only recently that the influence of new crop 

 Cuba sugars is felt upon our market. The spot quotation still represents a value based 

 upon a continued scarcity, while the normal value of the new Cuba crop is better ex- 

 pressed in the prices ruhng now for Januarj- and February shipments. The January 

 shipment, the latest sale, is at 2^/4 cents c. & f., equal to 3.61 cents landed, wdiile for 

 February shipment sales to-day are at 2% cents c. & f., equal to 3.485. cents landed. 

 February delivery is looked upon generally as being the turning-point of the downward 

 trend of prices for the campaign. The present value of 2% cents c. & f. still shows a 

 profit to the Cuban planter of sa}' Vs cent per pound for the average estate, some 

 estates costing 2 cents f. o. b. to produce centrifugals and other estates cost- 

 ing say 1.80 cents per pound f. o. b. for production. It is possible that February 

 deliveries of Cuba sugars may yet touch cost of production, but it is not entirely cer- 

 tain that they will do so, inasmuch as the reciprocity treaty with the United States 

 gives Cuba 34 cents per 100 pounds advantage in duties over beet sugars, and the present 

 value of February Cubas, 3.485 cents per pound, is .395 cent per pound less than the parity 

 of beet sugar at a cost of production say 9s. per cwt. f. o. b. Hamburg, equal to 3.88 cents 

 per pound for centrifugals at New York. This discrimination of about 40 cents per 

 100 pounds ought not to be increased by a further decline in Cuba more than of a tem- 

 porary circumstance. After the low point is touched, it would seem consistent to expect 

 a steady, but slow improvement in values to set in and continue throughout the present 

 campaign. In other words, the immense crops of sugar in the world will become neutral- 

 ized and influenced at the cost of production values, and thereafter prices wall be influenced 

 somewhat favorably by increased consumption of sugars both at home and abroad, caused 

 by extreme low prices. 



The Cuba crop started the season w-ith a small number of centrals grinding in Decem- 

 ber, but which are now increasing daily in number, and the crop promises to be in full 

 outturn before very long. Reports vary somewhat as to conditions of cane and sugar 



(Continued on page 34) 



