THE CUBA REVIEW 



SUGAR REVIEW 



Specially Written for The Cuba Review by Willett & Gray, of New York 



JANUARY PRICES MAY PROVE TO BE THE LOW OF THE CAMPAIGN 



1 ,700,000 TONS NOW THE ESTIMATE 



Our last review for this magazine was dated January 11, 1911. 



At that date centrifugals were quoted at 3.675c. per pound. 



To-day's valuation is 3.48c. per pound. 



Beet sugar was then 9 shillings, equal to 3.S8c. for centrifugals at Xew York, and is 

 now 9s. 3%d., equal to 3.95c., for centrifugals at New Y'ork. 



In the meantime, beet sugar in Europe had fluctuated slightly above and below 9 shil- 

 lings until the present month when it has taken on a firmer upward tendency and im- 

 proved 7%d. from its lowest point, with the tone and tefidency still firm, owing to the 

 fact that highest stock figures for the continent have now been passed and stocks are 

 on the decline and more easily carried, financialh', until required. 



The present Cuba crop conditions attract the larger consideration at the present time. 

 As usual, at the beginning of the campaign, values declined steadily under the first sales 

 of crop production until they touched 2 l-16c. c. and f., 96 degrees test, on sales of 

 January 24th. This may or maj- not prove to be the lowest point of the campaign, the 

 market having rallied to 2 3-16c. c. and f. for February-]\Iarch deliveries to speculators 

 but not to refiners who have thus far declined to buy upon this basis, on the expectation 

 that with increased receipts the lower quotation may be again touched for March ship- 

 ments. Smaller crop receipts to February 1st saj- about 150,000 tons, with fewer centrals 

 grinding than last year, give some encouragement for refiners' expectations that larger 

 production in March will renew the disposition to sell freelj^ which does not now exist, 

 the offerings at the moment being extremely light for the season and sellers showing 

 marked indifference as to whether they are accepted or not. Also, the strength of the 

 European market, shown in advancing prices, and the fact that 2%c. c. and f. is already 

 .47c. below European parity, is an encouragement for Cuban planters to maintain their 

 pretentions by an advance, if European prices hold firm. 



We are able to give now as close an estimate as is practicable at this time of the 

 present Cuba crop, which we give herewith. 



The start of the new campaign was late, and the production to the end of January 

 shows a fall short of 150,000 tons, compared with same time last j^ear. We have just re- 

 ceived many direct reports from large and small factories in all parts of the island, show- 

 ing a light tonnage of cane and a reduction of about % per cent in 3-ield of sugar. Our 

 advices indicate an average of 5.8 per cent deficiency in outturn which, applied to last 

 year's figures, would give a production this campaign of 1,699,697 tons. 



About the same result can be obtained by beginning with the outturn of 229,118 tons to 

 January 31st, and assuming that the production from this time forward will be the same 

 as the corresponding period last year, say 1,423,681 tons, less 60,000 tons because of reduc- 

 tion in percentage of sugar yield, plus about 100,000 tons for probable later grinding this 

 season, as many factories stopped work for lack of cane last year long before the rainy 

 season set in. 



We therefore reduce our estimate of this season's Cuba crop to 1,700,000 tons sugar, 

 dependent on favorable conditions. 



The only active competitor against Cuba this season is likely to be Java, which country 

 apparently can produce sugar at lower cost than any other, and, with a surplus of some 

 160,000 tons in second-hands left over from preceding crop difficult of sale and with 

 a coming crop of 1,300,000 tons, very little of which will be actually required by European 

 countries, it appears certain that offerings for the United States will commence earlier, 

 continue longer, and be of much larger quantity than last year. At what particular 

 point in the coming rise of values for Cuba sugars from 2%c. c. and f. this competition 

 will begin and cause a check to advances in Cuba, remains to be seen. 



Other crop advices having an influence upon Cuba are not important. None such by 

 estimates thus far will exceed the crops of last year, and may prove inferior, particu- 

 larty the next beet crops of Europe, which are recently subject to weekly reports of un- 

 favorable weather for field work. 



