COINCIDENCES, LUCK, CHANCE 



in England " is for some of us the first axe-blazing, mark- 

 ing out the first broad cart road into the wilderness, and I 

 yet retain a vivid recollection how the laughing incredulity 

 of an emotional Canadian family met the boyish emigrant's 

 statement (which I had got from Buckle's book) that in 

 England the total marriages per year per thousand w^ere a 

 known and definite factor of the average price of corn 

 (wheat), 



lyike many other enthusiastic pioneers Buckle made 

 errors, and we, standing in the opened clearing, easily see 

 that they are errors. When he comes to such a matter as 

 murder and suicide averages, being foreknown with the 

 certainty of a chemical formula, we now see that for his 

 statement to remain true it has to be predicated that the 

 people themselves — and more especially their environment 

 — does not markedly alter. May I use a simple illustra- 

 tion ? If you make a true die or cube of raw bone, and 

 properly mark its six faces, you will practically get "ace 

 up" 100,000 times in 600,000 throws. But should this 

 raw bone be somewhat tuberculus, so that in drying out it 

 did not condense evenly (not necessarily altering the truth 

 of the shape, yet slightly altering the centre of gravity) we 

 shall then see, that the expected proportion of it turning 

 up I to 6 will be altered ; and the rate of alteration possibly 

 influenced by the energy with which the die is thrown up, 

 or the distance it is allowed to roll. So among a people, 

 if they or their environment be altered, then it is certain 

 their resultant behaviour will be altered also. Hence, dur- 

 ing a wave of emotion — or, say epidemic sickness — it 

 would be foolish to predict the number per thousand of 

 suicides or murders. 



Buckles' actual relationship figures, at many points, 

 cannot now be quoted as accurate, because he did not see — 

 or allow for — the qualifying action and re-action of envir- 

 onment — that is, he was in time, pre-darwinian and did not 

 know that these neglected dice he was just learning to ob- 



