WEATHER PROGNOSTICS. 429 



utterly without foundation, and if their origin could be traced it would be found 

 the thoughtless utterance of some lunatic or the chance rhyme of a crank who 

 " never had a dozen thoughts in all his life," and who " thinks the visual line that 

 girds him round the world's extreme." 



The effort which our Signal Service Bureau is making to collect these pro- 

 verbs and have them published will clear up this subject to some extent; will 

 doubtless separate the chaff from the wheat, as it were, so that those sayings 

 which have a real value may be made to play a part in perfecting our knowledge of 

 the science of meteorology. It will have little effect, however, on public opinion. 

 Five hundred earnest, educated men may use the most perfect instruments at es- 

 tablished stations, and make tri-daily observations of these, record the same, and 

 use many thousand miles of telegraph lines almost constantly, thus mutually as- 

 sisting one another, and then, the result of their combined labors, under a sys- 

 tem the most perfect ever devised, is regarded by millions of our people to be 

 less reliable than the " probabilities" of a medical almanac or the equally value- 

 less prognostication of a weather-prophet,, so-called. 



But our laborers in the cause of science are producing some effect. Public 

 opinion is slowly changing in their favor. The day is distant but is approaching 

 when the people will acknowledge the merits of our Signal Service Bureau and 

 the value of the work accomplished by it. 



Some weather proverbs have reference to observed conditions of the atmos- 

 phere as, " when there's a fog in the cellar there will be rain; " again, — 

 "An evening red the next morning gray 

 Are sure signs of a beautiful day." 



These sayings have a scientific basis on which to rest, and are therefore to be 

 relied on, while some sayings, I think a majority, originate from some chance 

 rhyme, and are totally unreliable. 



We will now trace the causes of some of the phenomena which give rise to 

 weather prognostics. 



A fog in the cellar results sometimes, on a very warm morning, when the 

 ■SAX is heavily charged with moisture. It is more likely to be observed in cellars 

 where there are openings on opposite sides, permitting a free passage for the air. 

 During the past summer I have noticed a fog in the cellar on two occasions and 

 were followed within twelve hours by severe rainstorms. Briqtk pavements have 

 been observed to be moist or even wet at mid-day from the condensation of 

 vapor, at times when the air was in a condition closely approaching saturation. 

 This phenomenon, produced by the same cause as the fog in the cellar, will of 

 -course indicate a storm in the same manner, or, I might better say it indicates 

 such a condition of the atmosphere as almost invariably precedes a storm. Even 

 the barometer itself does not indicate, when the mercurial column settles, that a 

 storm is approaching a certain locality, but simply that the atmospheric condi- 

 tions are favorable to the development of storms. On showery days, the bulk 

 oi the precipitation occurs in parallel belts from ten to fifty miles in width, sepa- 



