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in the future. Why? In 150 years a timber sale that loses one thousand dollars will discount to 

 less than a three dollar loss in present value. 



The result is the inclusion of a lot of uneconomic timber in the timber base, which inflates the 

 calculated annual harvest beyond what is realistic. This is one variation of the infamous 

 "allowable cut effect." And, because the Forest Service computer programmers allowed it, the 

 economic effects of uneconomic timber sales are "hidden in the future." The resulting timber 

 schedule is the epitome of mining the old growth timber, high grading the Tongass, and 

 inflating the annual cut, all at tremendous long-term cost to the taxpayer. 



How could the benchmark timber schedules be improved? By including a constraint that 

 would prohibit declines in net annual revenue, and/or by dropping the uneconomic timber out 

 of the timber base. 



Timber Yield Tables May Contribute to Inflated Cut and High Costs 



Because there was no budget constraint in the benchmarks, FORPLAN was free to assume that 

 unlimited funds would be available to grow a second timber crop. "Managed timber yield 

 tables" project tremendous future growth potential, but large investments of tax dollars are 

 required to fund thinning, pruning, and other intensive tree farming activities. Again, this 

 contributes to overstated annual harvests and understated costs. Both unmanaged and managed 

 yield tables for the Tongass are presently being revised by the Forest Service. 



The "Long Term Sustained Yield Capacity" Figures Are Pure Fantasy 



The "long-term sustained yield capacity" of the Tongass is a relatively meaningless figure. 

 Simply put, it assumes unlimited expenditures on intensive timber management on every square 

 foot of land capable of growing a tree, with little consideration of practical operational limits, 

 and with no consideration of any other uses of the Tongass at all. It is included because it is 

 required to be calculated in all forest plans. 



Lack of Timber Demand Cutoff Overstates Timber Value and Demand 



For most resources, the Forest Service assumed that at some high level of supply the demand 

 for that resource would drop to zero. However, for timber the agency assumes an infinite 

 demand for Tongass timber. This means FORPLAN thinks all timber scheduled can be sold, 

 no matter how much is offered for sale, what the quality of the timber is, or what the harvest 

 economics are. 



Benchmarks Suggest Salmon Streamside Timber Is More Valuable Standing Than Cut! 



In every benchmark except the max timber benchmark, FORPLAN decided that salmon 

 streamside timber contributes more to the value of the Tongass when it is left alone than when 

 it is logged. This is reflected, for example, in the fact that the maximum fish benchmark, in 

 which no logging occurred in riparian areas, has a higher present net value than does the max 

 timber benchmark. This is a powerful argument in favor of requiring buffer strips along all 

 salmon streams. 



