II 



Mr ElSENBUD. Forgive me for interrupt in jr. please, but we may be 

 treading in the area that the Service, and [ think rightly, sought to 

 avoid, [fear thai we may be inadvertently getting into a discussion 

 of the regulations. 1 would like to express some concern about such a 

 discussion in light of the fact that it is a pending adjudication. 



I certainly do not want to cut you off, but I do have some reserva- 

 tions about how far we should go into it. 



Mr. Oberstar. I am trying to understand what the difficulties are in 

 making this assessment of the population, because it is essential to 

 legislating in this area, to carry out the mandate of the law. 



What problems do vou find in assessing optimum population for 

 porpoises and dolphins \ What are your problems in measuring that 

 population, and establishing a benchmark against which to measure 

 any increase or decrease? 



Now, you made a statement that the eastern spinner dolphin is 60 

 percent below the population level. Our problem was we did not have 

 accurate measurements years back so, 60 percent below what ? 



Mr. Leggett. That is what I am trying to determine. 



Dr. Chapman. The workshop in" La Jolla did in fact make esti- 

 mates of the original population levels and the 1976 levels of all the 

 major species. These estimates are available in the workshop report, 

 which was released in September of last year, and updated estimates 

 were given bv the National Marine Fisheries Service in their testi- 

 mony ^to the administrative law judge in connection with the 1977 

 regulations. That is a matter of public record. 



There are, of course, certain problems with those estimates. Those 

 estimates were carefully reviewed, and concerns were expressed in the 

 course of the hearings." The estimates are based on a number of as- 

 sumptions, and a number of the estimates involve certain statistical 

 problems which were reviewed fully, both in the workshop report and 



subsequent 1 v. 



One of the problems is that the best base for the estimation is an 

 aerial survey which was carried out in 1974. It was not a complete 

 survey, and it was not intended to be. It was intended to be a feasi- 

 bility" study, but unfortunately no further information was derived 

 since that time. 



It was the recommendation of the Commission that another aerial 

 survey be carried out, and this recommendation was adopted by the 

 National Marine Fisheries Service which is now carrying out another 



survey. ... , 



The more comprehensive survey was initiated in January of this 

 year, and obviously will not be completed prior to March. The results 

 will not be analyzed for sometime thereafter. Considerably better 

 information, I hope, will be available at that time. The data base is, 

 admittedly, weak but it is the best we have. 



Mr. Oberstar. And probably always will be because of the enormity 

 of the area we are dealing with, we are talking about several miles of 

 ocean, and there is no way. really, of getting down and counting 

 heads, as we can do with timber wolves. 



Mr. Leggett. Let us keep the timber wolves out of it. 



Mr. Oberstar. Well. I know we want to bring them in, too. It is 

 just a difficult problem to measure the population. 



