246 



not take nnv this year, what is your estimate of the time that will 

 required for the special to increase, say, 5 percent? 



Dr. Chapman. I can give von that information. I think that pi 

 ticular Information was prepared in the La Jolla report. I do i 

 have that with mo. T will put it in the record. Mr. Chairman. I 

 not have it right at my fingertips. 



Mr. Leggett. Do von have a hallpark estimate on that? 



Dr. Chapman. Well. Mr. Chairman 



Mr. Leggett. Just an approximation. 



Dr. Chapman- [continuing]. Tt would of course depend on t 

 foreign kill. Hopefully we are going to have some updating of ma: 

 aspects of the situation during the current year, which may not on 

 have some changes in the stock but changes in our best informatii 

 on those stocks. 



As yon know, the National Marino Fisheries Service is carryii 

 on a new aerial survey, which hopofnllv is going to be a mneh bett 

 aerial survey than that which was conducted in 1974. It will give 

 better information on the status of all the stocks, including t 

 eastern spinner stock. 



As Mr. Mulligan has referred to. the proposed dedicated vess 

 has also been discussed. Tt will be nsed to carry out extensive resear 

 on a number of aspects of the problem, one of which will have to i 

 with the reproductive status of the stocks — including the importa 

 eastern spinner stock. So we will perhaps get a better fix on th 

 figure when wo have that information, than we now have. 



I do not want to <rive you a misleading answer — if we do not g 

 any other new information, I would say that perhaps in 8 or 4 yea 

 the eastern spinner stock would increase to about 60 percent of i 

 original stock size. 



I want to qualify that by checking with better calculations. 



However, I want to assure you that we will have better inform 

 tion by the end of this year, and certainly the answers will have to 1 

 modified in light of that better information. 



Mr. Leggett. All right. 



The conclusion of all that is you do not know at this point? 



Dr. Chapman. I am sorry, Mr. Chairman? 



Mr. Leggett. The question was, if the United States does not tali 

 and the foreigns do, the question was 



Dr. Chapman. Oh, I see. If the foreigners take the same level i 

 they have done in the past, then I would think something in th 

 order of 3 or 4 years. 



As I say, this particular calculation is available some place, and 

 would like to check it. 



Mr. Leggett. All right. 



Mr. Leggett. Are there any other questions? 



Mr. Spensley. Mr. Chapman, does your Commission fully suppoi 

 the National Marine Fishery's decision of 1977, of the 1077 regu 

 lations? 



Dr. Chapman. Yes; speaking very broadly, and with reference t 

 the key regulations. I will not go into great detail on the specif! 

 questions, but when you are talking about the key regulations, fo 

 example, the quota on the offshore spotted porpoise stock, wo arrive* 

 at approximately the same level by a somewhat different approad 



