6 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GEOLOGY 



earthquake insurance because you are not near a 

 fault.' " 



His actual predictions as set forth in print^ were 

 further supplemented by rumors and exaggeration 

 which accused him of saying things even worse than 

 he did say, including predictions that an exact date 

 of June, 1927, was fixed for the disaster. Men and 

 women of the unschooled masses were alarmed almost 

 to panic, and even some of the better informed were 

 greatly disturbed. 



For example, early in June the solitude of my study 

 was broken by a phone call from a lady, the wife of a 

 prominent engineer of this city, who, in a greatly agi- 

 tated voice, wished to know whether it was advisable 

 for her to buy a lot and build a house in Los Angeles, 

 stating that a terrible earthquake had been predicted 

 as being near at hand by a professor of Leland Stan- 

 ford. 



ALLEGED REASONS FOR THE PROPHECIES 



It will not be possible, before presenting data, 

 to show all of my reasons for dissentign from 

 Dr. Willis's conclusions, but for the present I can only 

 say that his predictions of approaching disaster in 

 Southern California are largely based upon a theo- 

 retical assumption which cannot be verified. By analyz- 

 ing all of his writings on the subject, it will be found 



^"A Rational Basis of Earthquake Insurance," by Dr. Bailey Willis. 

 Delivered before the annual meeting of the National Board of Fire Under- 

 writers, New York, May 24, 1926. 



"Underwriting Earthquake Hazai-ds," by Dr. Bailey Willis. Compliments 

 of the Eagle, Star and British Dominions Insurance Co., Ltd., of London, 

 England, Pacific Coast Dept, Fred S. James & Co., Gen. Agts., 108 Sansome 

 St., San Francisco. Read before the 49th annual meeting of the First Under- 

 writers' Association of the Pacific. 



