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FWP is also conceiTied about calf recruitment. There are early indications that the number of wolves that 

 prey on the northern Yellowstone elk herd has leveled off because wolves may have reached their social 

 and biological carrying capacity for area. Overall elk herd dynamics are largely influenced by 

 environmental factors and predation dynamics that occur inside YNP boundaries. FWP's management of 

 the portion of the herd that winters in the .State of Montana north of YNP and the focus of the Gardiner 

 late hunt will need to take that into consideration. Monitoring efforts are an important part of that 

 management, particularly for determining the number of migrant, YNP elk wintering north of Dome 

 Mountain. 



While there are many factors that affect elk herd numbers and distribution (i.e. winter severity, weather 

 during hunting season, drought conditions, and hunter pressure), the available data on the northern 

 Yellowstone elk herd suggest that current herd size, hunter effort and hunter success are within the 

 general ranges seen before the reintroduction of wolves. Data indicate that the late winter 2002 calf 

 recruitment estimate (14 calves counted for every 100 adult cows) was a record low. Just like total elk 

 numbers, calf recruitment in Yellowstone varies widely from year to year, ranging from 14-48 calves/100 

 cows, with an average of 32 calves/100 cows. However, across almost all areas of elk habitat in Montana, 

 with a few exceptions, have experienced declines of 30-50% from the historical averages of the calf/100 

 cow ratios. This includes the elk population in the Missouri River Breaks. Recruitment in Yellowstone 

 elk is typically lower than most elk populations in neighboring herds in southwestern Montana. Reasons 

 for lower recruitment in Yellowstone elk include higher predation rates in a predator-rich environment 

 that now includes wolves, lower pregnancy rates, an older age structure in female segment of the herd, 

 long stressful winters, and the general physical condition of elk which varies with forage availability and 

 quality. In recent years, persistent drought conditions have also affected overall herd health and 

 condition, as well as recruitment rates. Long term studies are required to understand wolf effects on 

 ungulates. Extensive studies of this wolf/ungulate relationship are now underway both within and outside 

 YNP. 



FWP administers the Gardiner late hunt to help manage elk numbers on winter ranges north of YNP. 

 FWP's management objective is to provide winter range forage for migrant Yellowstone elk on a 

 sustainable basis by managing elk numbers so they do not exceed the carrying capacity of the winter 

 range and cause long term changes in plant communities or declines in forage production. To accomplish 

 this, hunters are used as a management tool to help regulate the number of elk wintering north of the YNP 

 boundary, by annually harvesting a portion of the migrant population. The number of antlerless elk 

 permits available for the Gardiner late hunt changes through time, based on winter population counts, 

 recruitment, previous hunter success, hunter participation, and the number of elk migrating to winter 

 range north of YNP. The number of migrant elk available to hunters during the late hunt, thus hunter 

 success, depends heavily on winter weather conditions that determine the timing and the size of elk 

 migrations (FWP 2001b). 



Elk hunting is also popular in other areas of southwestern Montana outside the Yellowstone area. 

 Management objectives for many elk herds in southwestern Montana call for reducing total elk 

 populations. Antlerless harvest opportunities have been liberalized in recent years where elk populations 

 are exceeding social canying capacity. Table 10 summarizes elk hunting infonnation in FWP Region 3. 

 As noted above, many different factors can affect herd population numbers and distribution. Similarly, 

 many factors affect hunter harvest, independent of elk numbers. Weather, changes in hunting regulations 

 and special permit availability, and human population changes in the region can all influence hunter 

 success. 



Outfitted Hunting. Outfitted hunting is significant and economically important to big game hunting in 

 Montana. In the 2000 and 2001 hunting seasons, over 10,000 hunters used the services of a hunting 

 outfitter. The majority of these guided hunters come to Montana from out-of-state, purchasing 



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