10 The Commercial Apple Industry 



and conditions, leads to certain probabilities. The fol- 

 lowing factors are favorable to the future of the apple 

 industry. 



1. Increase in population. 



The first point to be considered is the probable increase 

 or decrease in consumption. There may be periods of 

 very heavy planting, but if population and demand in- 

 crease proportionately, an equilibrium is maintained. 

 Obviously the most favorable factor in the outlook is the 

 rapid normal increase in the population of the United 

 States. If the same rate of increase continues, in 1930 

 there will be 130,000,000 people, while in 1940, when 

 many of the apple orchards not yet in bearing will reach 

 their highest productivity, there will be 165,000,000 peo- 

 ple. If the same rate of increase continues until 1950, 

 there will be 210,000,000. Kate of increase in population 

 depends, of course, on a number of factors. 



2. Movement to the city. 



The important factor in the increase in population is 

 that there is a constantly increasing percentage living in 

 cities and towns. For example, in 1790 96 per cent of 

 the inhabitants lived on farms and only 4 per cent lived 

 in towns and did not raise the food they consumed; in 

 1860 84 per cent lived on farms and 16 per cent in 

 towns; in 1880 44 per cent on farms and 56 per cent in 

 towns; in 1900 35 per cent on farms and 65 per cent in 

 towns and in 1910 30' per cent on farms and 70 per cent 

 in towns. The drift towards the city is distinctly in the 

 orchardist's favor. In fact, this would seem to be the 



