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Senator Wirth. Mr. Mehrkens. 



STATEMENT OF JOSEPH R. MEHRKENS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA 

 NATURAL RESOURCES CENTER 



Mr. Mehrkens. I am Joseph Mehrkens and I represent the 

 Southeast Alaska National Resources Center located in Juneau, 

 Alaska. The Center is a joint venture between The Wilderness Soci- 

 ety and the Underhill Foundation. 



My statement is in support of your bill. This bill will strengthen 

 the region's economy and protects important fish and wildlife 

 values that are vital to commercial fishing and subsistence uses, 

 recreation and tourism. 



In 1980 when Congress acted on the Alaska Lands Legislation 

 jobs were the major issue. At that time timber employment was at 

 record levels due to favorable market conditions. Today's record 

 timber employment is also the result of a market recovery but is 

 dominated by intensive logging on private lands. 



In the almost 10 years since the Alaska National Interest Lands 

 Conservation Act was enacted, we have gained a much clearer un- 

 derstanding of what affects timber employment in southeast 

 Alaska. 



First, we know that massive public subsidies to log the Tongass 

 cannot offset declines in timber demand and resulting job losses. 



Second, we know that the increases in the timber industry and 

 employment is the result of accelerated logging on private lands 

 which has actually masked a decline in Tongass timber dependent 

 jobs since 1980. 



Third, I can say that the Tongass Timber Reform Act will not 

 effect Tongass timber dependent employment. 



Because Alaska is a higher than the average cost to produce it, it 

 is less competitive. This means that the Tongass dependent timber 

 industry is the last to enjoy the new and improving markets and 

 the first to feel the softening markets. 



Because of this competitive position of the Tongass timber de- 

 pendent jobs are substantially below 1980 levels and this is in spite 

 of the fact that we have had vastly improved markets in 1970 and 

 1980. 



Looking to the future, the future opportunities for logging and 

 Tongass dependent timber industry will be diminished as logging 

 increases on marginal timberlands. For thirty years now we have 

 concentrated on taking only the best trees and only the higher 

 quality stands and greater use of lower quality timber in the future 

 will make Tongass' dependent industry even more susceptible to 

 market cycles, while employment opportunities will also fall off 

 with the declining demand for Alaskan products in Japan. Alaska's 

 timber demand is closely tied to Japanese housing starts. Housing 

 starts are expected to fall this year and will remain at lower levels 

 until the mid 1990s. While we are at a peak in the market cycle for 

 pulp, a recent Forest Service study states that the demand for 

 Alaska's pulp is expected to peak above 260,000 metric tons in the 

 period 1987 to '88 and decline gradually to approximately 140,000 

 metric tons by the year 2000. The implications for unemployment 

 are obvious; either both mills operate at 50 percent capacity or 



