212 



tally (It) . This is substantially lower then the average of 265 

 mmbfjlt, from 1977 to 1980. In contrast, the production of 

 dissolving pulp has achieved the same high levels experienced in 

 the late 1970s. However, the portion of Tongass timber used to 

 make pulp has declined from the 90 percent used in the late 

 1970s, to about 62 percent in FY87 and FY88. The pulpmills are 

 substituting timber from private lands and logs imported from 

 British Columbia in place of the Tongass timber. Since 1980, 

 log imports from British Columbia have averaged about 40 MMBF 

 and reached a peak of 78 MMBF in 1986. 



Past and Present Timber Employment Trends 



Based on Forest Service information, there were 2,950 

 direct timber jobs in FY80. Employrnent gradually fell to a low 

 of 1,950 jobs by FY85 and then increased to about 3,200 -jobs in 

 FY88. The FY88 estimate for total timber jobs in southeast 

 Alaska is about 10 percent higher than the peak levels recorded 

 during the late 1970s. This is not the case for Tongass- 

 dependent timber employment. Tongass-dependent timber jobs 

 today are substantially below FY80 levels. Tongass-dependent 

 timber employment was estimated at 2,500 jobs in FY80 and has 

 declined about 25 percent to 1,900 jobs in FY88 — even with 

 vastly improved markets during FY87 and FY88. Thus the Tongass- 

 dependent share of total timber employment in southeast Alaska 

 has fallen from about 85 percent in 1980 to 58 percent in 1988. 



The increase in the region's timber employment is 

 primarily due to accelerated logging on private lands. Logging 

 on private lands has steadily increased from 61.5 mmbf in FY80 

 to 305.2 mmbf in FY88. In contrast, logging on the Tongass 

 decreased from 428.3 mmbf in FY80 to 331.5 mmbf in FY88. 

 Private timber harvests have nearly equalled or exceeded Tongass 

 timber harvests since 1985. While timber harvests on private 

 lands primarily boosts logging employment, it also contributes 

 to pulpmill jobs. 



Future Employment Opportunities 



The future competitiveness of the Tongass timber industry 

 will be diminished as logging increases on marginal timberlands. 

 For thirty years only the best trees and higher quality stands 

 have been harvested. Since 1950, the most economically 

 important species (Sitka spruce) on the forest accounts for 

 about 27 percent of the total volume harvested. Its natural 

 distribution over the forest and the timber base is only 11-14 

 percent. This means that the most profitable trees have been 

 cut twice as fast as what can be sustained over the harvest 

 rotation. The timber industry has concentrated logging on the 

 higher than average volume timber stands. The average volume 

 per acre for the Tongass timber base is between 22,000 to 26,000 

 mbf/acre. Yet, harvest yields for the last 3 years have been 



