213 



much higher, about 40,000 to 42,000 thousand board feet (mbf) 

 per acre . The practice of concentrating on Sitka spruce and 

 taking only the higher volume timber stands lowers the value of 

 remaining timber supply. The greater use of lower quality timber 

 in the future will make the Tongass-dependent industry even more 

 susceptible to market cycles and create greater fluctuations in 

 employment. 



Future employment opportunities will fall off with the 

 declining demand for Alaska sawn products in Japan. Alaska's 

 timber demand is closely tied to Japanese housing starts. 

 Housing starts are expected to fall this year and will remain at 

 lower levels until the mid 1990s. Actual starts were 1.674 

 million in 1987 and are expected to decline to 1.2 million over 

 the next six years. Moreover, there has been a relative and 

 absolute decrease in wood-based housing starts in Japan since 

 1979. 



There has been a slow steady decline in the demand for 

 dissolving pulp worldwide due to increased competition from 

 cheaper, petroleum-based substitutes. Southeast Alaska 

 producers face competition from lower cost pulp producers in 

 other nations. A recent Forest Service study states the demand 

 for Alaska's dissolving pulp is "...expected to peak above 

 260,000 metric tons in the 1987-88 period, and decline gradually 

 to approximately 140,000 metric tons by the year 2000." The 

 implications on employment are obvious. Either both mills 

 operate at 50 percent of capacity or only one mill will be 

 operating at historic rates. This is an economic fact of life 

 and has no relationship to the log supply on the Tongass 

 National Forest. 



Jobs and the Tongass Timber Reform Act 



An effort is currently underway to convince the residents 

 of Southeast Alaska that the Tongass Timber Reform Act will 

 devastate the region's economy. This is clearly designed to 

 polarize the various communities, industries and organizations 

 affected by the management of the Tongass. Yet area residents 

 already have clear priorities on Tongass reform. A recent 

 opinion poll conducted by the Sealaska Corporation indicates 

 that a majority of southeast Alaskans believe that now is the 

 time for compromise on the Tongass and that areas important for 

 wildlife, fisheries, recreation, and subsistence should be 

 withdrawn from the timber base. 



Under the Tongass Timber Reform Act there will be a 

 sufficient timber supply to meet timber demands into the 

 foreseeable future. If all proposed protected lands were 

 permanently set aside from the timber base, the current 



