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Stuart Dens low Tongass Testimony Page 4 



whole, real estate losses would be $84 million. The study team felt real 

 estate losses could well exceed 40 percent simply because there would be no 

 market for the more than 600 vacant housing units which will result from APC 

 closure. For purposes of the analysis, commercial real estate values are 

 assumed to fall in proportion to the loss of gross business sales at 29 

 percent. This converts to a $16 million loss. Industrial real estate would 

 experience a loss of $59 million. In total, Sitka's real estate value losses 

 should total $171 million, assuming the 40 percent loss in residential real 

 estate is not conservative. 



Hhat do these economic losses mean in terms of social and other less 

 quantifiable but equally devastating impacts? First, services would be 

 significantly reduced. With a loss of 400 students, school staffing would be 

 reduced by one-fourth, maintenance and utility costs will not be reduced, and 

 cost per student would rise with funding dramatically reduced, which would 

 likely result in a decline in the quality of education. 



Services at the municipal hospital would decrease dramatically, with a 

 minimum of a 50 percent loss in patients and revenue, due to loss of 

 population, insurance coverages, and incomes adequate to permit elective 

 medical care. Staff and medical services would be reduced or eliminated, and 

 Sitkans would have to leave town to obtain those types of care. Rates would 

 rise, and the quality and quantity of health care would decrease, with the 

 average Sitka family having less ability to pay for what health care remains. 



