360 



period of time-a month or two to over a year, depending on the financial 

 condition of famihes affected-population will eventually equal the 

 employment loss. Population in the Sitka case may be slowed by people being 

 unable to sell their houses. During the Alaska recession of 1986-88, when the 

 housing market was depressed it was not vmconunon for families to simply 

 leave their houses when they had to move to other places for employment. 



School Enrollment 



The assumption is made that the households affected by APC closure are 

 typical of the community in terms of number of school children. This means 

 413 of the 1713 Sitka public school enrollment (24%) will be lost. With them 

 will go a proportional share ($1.5 million) of the State of Alaska School 

 Foundation Fund which provides the Sitka School District with most of its $8 

 million annual budget. State contributions are based on enrollment. Not 

 included at this time £ire estimates of additional school funding losses from 

 other sources including local contributions. Public Law 874 funds and other 

 sources which provide the district with another $2 million. Certainly the local 

 ability to contribute will be reduced. Were these losses proportional to student 

 loss, another $0.5 million would be added to the loss column. 



Employment 



Basic (direct) industry losses are simply the 375 APC employees currently 

 working plus a longshore crew of 20 which handles pulp shipping. Not 

 included in these number are the likely loss of most or all of the U.S. Forest 

 Service employment of 111 and their payroll of $3.4 million. Were U.S.F.S. 

 employment and payroll to be lost, all impacts shown in this analysis would 

 be increase by another 28%. For example, population loss would total 2,624 or 

 nearly 1/3 of the commtmity rather than the 24% shown in this analysis. This 

 analysis is confined to the direct loss of APC operations. 



Support industry employment lost would total an additional 599. Support 

 employment in the private sector is calculated by reducing it in proportion to 

 the basic industry income lost by removal of the $17 million APC payroll 

 from trade, service and other private sector support industries which benefit. 

 APC accounts for 29% of all basic industry income in Sitka. The private 

 support sector reacts more to changes in income available in the local 

 economy than to population and an estimated 459 jobs would be lost. 

 Government support industry losses in local, state and federal government 

 employment are based on population rather than income loss, because most 

 government services are provided roughly in proportion to the size of the 

 population being served. One hundred forty support industry government 

 jobs would be lost. 



In total, about one-fourth of all Sitka jobs would be lost, including all of those 

 in the highest paying industry, forest products. 



