367 



(cars, boats, furniture, etc). Obviously this affects the business community and 

 those in the durable goods business are often t he first to close and /or declare 

 bankruptcy. While the loss of income may be 29% for the community as a 

 whole the spending of the remaining 71% will be severely curtailed until the 

 economy stabilizes, which could take several years were APC to close in Sitka. 

 All of the cases just mentioned suffered from consumer fear and a halt to 

 certain types of spending. Donations to charities also suffer in recession times 

 so those most essential in hard times-such as the Sedvation Army-have less 

 resources to help the needy. 



Finally, economic recession of the severity considered here is very regressive. 

 Those with the least economic ability will be the most seriously affected. 

 Families in poor housing, with little or no savings, seasonal or part-time 

 employment and with disabilities, will suffer disproportionately, as they have 

 in other areas of Alaska affected by recession. They will be the first to lose jobs, 

 the first to become homeless, the first to go without adequate medical care 

 and the first to exhaust their reserves. They will also be the least capable of 

 moving to another location and of finding new employment in other areas. 



An APC closure would have a disproportionate impact on the Sitka Native 

 population. 145 Natives hold mill jobs at APC and Native people tend to 

 have less economic mobility than other workers. The degree of economic and 

 emotional duress would be greater due to less average income and fewer 

 alternatives for work. 



Support Sector Impacts 



The construction industry, which currently employs 129 on a year around 

 basis, will be devastated as it was in Anchorage, Juneau, Fairbanks and Mat- 

 Su. No new construction will be needed and no government capital projects 

 will be built in a decliiung community. This industry and its $4 million 

 payroll can be expected to become a fraction of its current size in a matter of 

 months were APC to close. 



Support industry manufacturing, which consists of printing and other local 

 functions will also be hit harder than average. It is unlikely the local paper 

 could remain in business with the loss of its commercial advertising base. 



Transportation service would be reduced and prices increased because the 

 Sitka market will shrink by at least one-fourth. Air travel, already unusually 

 expensive in Southeast Alaska, would cost more. Communications prices 

 would increase and services decline, not only because of the loss of market 

 but because of the loss of a major source of communications business, APC. 

 The cost of maintaining the communications infrastructure for a smaller 

 economy would increase per unit cost of telephone and long distance service. 

 This raises cost to the remaining households and businesses which are in a 

 poorer position to pay for existing rates much less higher ones. 



