BY R. M. JOHNSTON, F.L.S. 195 



T and C, wMcli have always been in operation — the human 

 race is now, after a million years, still vigorous, and numbers 

 over 1,480 million souls, is in itself the strongest proof that 

 the natural tendency to increase has been the powerful 

 influence counteracting the terrible effects of C, which we 

 too well know have always exerted a most powerful and dire 

 influence in preventing a large increase of population. 



The fallacy of Mr. George's arguments is more clearly 

 appreciated by stating the problem thus : — • 



Let I. — Natural tendency to increase (birth rate). 

 D. — Actual rate of increase or deci'ease of popn- 

 lation (a) surplus of births over deaths; (&) 

 stationary state, etc.; (c) surplus of deaths 

 over births. 

 T. — Death as the full termination ] 



of a natural healthy life I Death Eate. 



C. — Death from preventible causes j 

 M.- — -Moi'al influence lowering the value of I. 

 S. — Prosperity heightening the eff'ect of I. 

 P. — The result upon the population (a) increase ; 



(&) stationariness ; (c) decline. 

 D. — The actual surplus (a) ; stationariness (&) ; 

 *^ decline (c) per year. 



1. When I + S — M exceeds T + C, the result will be 



P a or D a, or an increase of population. 



2. When I + S — M only equals T + C, the result will 



be P 6 or D h, or a stationary state of population. 



3. When 1+ S — M falls below T + 0, the result wiU 



be P c Or D c, or a decline in population, caused by 

 the checks being greater than the birth rate. 

 What folly, therefore, to conceive a stationary state of 

 population as being due to the lowered absolute influence of 

 I alone, when the same result, according to our experience, 

 based upon the vital statistics of all countries, is due rather 

 to the increased value of C, the root evil, which Malthus 

 wished to see eliminated. 



That a high death rate has a greater influence than a low 

 birth rate in diminishing the surplus of births over deaths is 

 easily proved by reference to vital statistics — our only guide 

 in such matters. For example, take the case of Norway and 

 Spain and Hungary for the year 1885 : — 



I+S— M C+T Da 



Birth rate Death rate Surplus of births 

 per 100 per 100 over deaths 



persons. persons. per 1000 persons. 

 Norway ... 30-9 17-1 13-8 



Spain ... 36-6 30-6 6-0 



Hungary ... 45-3 32-6 127 



