39 



Table 10. ?rob*bilici«8 of excir.ccion based en ch« fcoocscrap c.odel. 



Probability of Excinccion 

 Years Used and Extinction Criteria 

 in Analysis 1 Fish 30 fish 



Probability That in 2089 



the Escapement Will Be Less Than 



300 fish 1.000 fish 5,000 fish 



100.0* 

 100.0* 



0.1* 

 7.3* 



100.0* 

 100.0* 



1.1* 



18. 9* 



100.0* 

 100.0* 



5.6* 

 44 . 8* 



Weighted Recent 

 1975-1994 (W) 



Table 11. Probabilities of extinction based on the diffusion model. 



Truncated Data 

 1980-1990 



1975-1990 



-0.15932 

 -0.15944 



0.30644 

 0.24285 



99.34* 

 99.65* 



99. 97* 

 99.65* 



Recent Data : 

 1980-1994 



1975-1994 



■0.00135 

 ■0. 04094 



0.42883 

 0.3S128 



35.05* 

 53 .16* 



68.17* 

 82.37* 



