186 



Reducing hydropower subsidies for special 

 inlefests such as aluminum manufacturers ($179 

 million), and power subsidies to pump water tor 

 irrigated agriculture ($50 million), could help pay 

 (or salmon restoration measures— and reduce 

 wasteful water and energy use that the subsidies 

 promote 



The region can afford to rebuild Columbia Basin 

 salmon runs' 



costs to lessen the cost of measures to improve wild salmon 

 survival. The report looks specifically at ways the federal 

 hydropower agencies can accommodate a combination of 

 reser\'oir drawdowns, increased river flows, and adequate 

 water to safely pass juvenile migrants over dams' spillways. 

 These are the measures that state and tribal fisheries profes- 

 sionals believe will provide the greatest improvement in 

 survival for salmon. They are also the measures that some 

 utilities and commercial river users have sought to portray as 

 "too expensive" to Northwest ratepayers. 



This report is not an attempt to quantify all costs associ- 

 ated with salmon recovery, nor to imply that the specific regime of drawdowns, flow, and spill 

 analyzed here is the exact right combination of these elements, or that alone these measures will 

 solve the impending crisis for Northwest salmon But the report rs intended to illustrate an impor- 

 tant point often missing in the debate over salmon recovery, that there are affordable strategies for 

 minimizing the costs of these key measures. 



Specific salmon recovery measures examined in this report (see below for details) is the "spill- 

 way-crest drawdown" option analyzed by BPA in its 199-1 System Operation Review, with added 



cost analysis for increased levels of "spill" recommended by 

 fisheries agencies The choice of thiis scenario was based 

 primarily on the availability of data, and because it gener- 

 ally reflects actions recommended by state and tribal fish 

 agencies. 



This report analyzes the following salmon measures. 



Annual drawdown of the lour lower SnaKe 

 reservoirs to "spillway crest," approximately 30 

 feet lower than current water levels, or roughly 

 one-third of the way down the dam. from April 16 

 through June 1 5 each year. 



Operabon of the John Day reservoir m the 

 Columbia River at minimum operating pool, the 

 lowest level that all functions of the dam 

 (including navigation and power producton) are 

 designed to be fully operational, or about S-8 feet 

 below current levels, during spring and summer 

 each year, 



I Snake River "flow augmentation' of one million 

 acre feet per year 



I In addition, thii report considers me costs of 

 sufficient "spill" at the Snake River dams to move 

 at least 80 percent of migraong smolts safely over 

 tfie spillway, around the turbines for a period of 

 lour montfis each year, and sufficient "spill" at the 

 Columbia River dams to send the highest 

 percentage possible of migrating smolts safely 

 over the spillway without exposing fish to 

 unaaeptably high nsk of nitrogen gas bubble 

 disease," also lor four months out of the year 



Real-World Scenarios to Mmimtze Electricity Costs 



Implementing the spillway-crest drawdown scenario would 

 shift hydropower generation from the winter, when it is 

 most valuable in the Northwest to the spring and summer, 

 when it is less so. The cost of replacing this lost winter 

 hydropower generation must therefore be considered part 

 of the cost to the region of implementing salmon recovery 

 measures. 



In the System Operation Review, BPA unrealistically 

 overestimates this cost. BPA's estimate of aruiual electrical 

 system costs of $160 million presumes that all lost hydro- 

 power capacity is replaced by building new natural gas- 

 fired turbines, even though this results in building enbre 

 power plants that would be needed or\ly two and a half 

 monthsf!) out of every 50 years. This is obviously not a 

 realistic assumption. 



Taking Full Advantage of the Western Power Cnd 



BPA also analyzes a more realistic scenario which assumes 

 that lost hydropower will be replaced by purchasing excess 

 power from other generating sources as needed, which is in 

 fact an established practice and one that a cost<onscious 

 utility would pursue. This scenario carries an annual price 

 tag of $66-88 million, fialf the cost of BPA's highest estimate. 



But even this much more realistic cost figure does not 

 fully take into account the opportunities available to BPA to 

 off-set the costs of replacing power lost at certain bmes of the year, with power safes to other western 

 regions at other times of the year. 



The demand for electricity in California and the Southwest is highest in the summer for air 

 conditioning, whereas demand for power in the Northwest is hughest in the winter for home heat- 

 ing. The spillway<rest drawdown scenario has the effect of reducing Northwest hydropower 

 generating capacity in the fall and winter, but it would increase power generation in the spring and 

 summer as flows for salmon add fuel to the hydropower system. Increased generating capacity 

 during the spring and sununer creates an opportunity for BPA power sales, or exchanges, via the 

 interconnected western power grid to regions of the west where demand peaks in summer. 



The potential market for sales of excess electricity to California are modest at this time, but are 

 projected to be substantial in future years In the short term, BPA has a significant opportunity to 

 offset losses of fall-and winter generation by increased power sales in spring and summer to W.APA. 

 the Western Area Power Authority that serves much of the Southwest. As a result of the recently 

 negotiated settlement of mitigation for Glen Canyon dam, required changes in water flow regimes in 



