PKOCEEDINGS, MAY. xvii 



would enable them to reach at once the original source of disease 

 or contagion, and stamp out epidemics before they reach serious pro- 

 portions. (Applause.) 



Mr. W. F. Ward, Government Analyst, said : I was so entirely 

 convinced by Mr. Johnston's argument and figures of the superiority 

 of his " health standard " for comparative purposes, and of the absolute 

 necessity for taking into account the difference expressed in the 

 saying, " The young man may die, but the old man must," that I was 

 the more forcibly struck by the unduly favourable figures assigned 

 to Hobart by the table on page 11. For this table all deaths over 60 

 are eliminated, but all persons living over 60 are calculated in. 

 Now this would be fair enough if the "old age groups" in each case 

 .were tolerably equal in number, but on page seven we find that Tasmania 

 has more than 80, and Queensland fewer than 19 persons per 1,000 in 

 this group, yielding 36 "74 and 6'38 per cent, respectively of the total 

 deaths, but the capitals of the two colonies give decidedly higher per- 

 centages than those of the total deaths, which fact I have assumed 

 (subject to correction) to mean correspondingly higher proportions 

 of old people. On this assumption, which, whether correct or not, is 

 applied all round, I have ventured to recalculate the table for each 

 1,000 living under 60, and not for each 1,000 living of all ages. 



• I. II. 



(Actual). (Calculated). (Calculated). 



Deaths under 60 Deaths under 60 Living under 60. 



per 1000 of all ages living, per 1000 living under 60. per 1000 of all ages. 



Hobart 13-97 15-44 905 



Adelaide 15-42 16-14 956 



Sydney 19-52 20-16 968 



Brisbane 19-79 20-30 975 



Taking the two extremes, Mr. Johnston's table may be taken 

 as comparing the death-rate of 905 persons under 60 in Hobart 

 with that of 975 in Brisbane, or 1,000 with 1,077, or taking the 

 figures for the whole colony in each case, and not my calculated 

 figures for the towns they would be 9"20 Hobart, and 981 Brisbane, or 

 1,000 or 1,066. The effect is to place Hobart in a much less favourable 

 light with an increase of 1-47, nearly tliree times the increase of Brisbane ; 

 while the difference between Hobart and Adelaide in favour of the 

 former is diminished from 1"45 to 0-7, or by more than 50 per cent. 

 The order of merit, however, remains unchanged, but I must admii 

 that my figures must give a very much closer "approximation to 

 relative value of conditions affecting health" than those of Mr. Johnston. 

 The death-rate shown on Mr. Johnston's diagrams, which illustrate 

 so well that rhythm of action which Herbert Spencer teaches us 

 to look for throughout iNature, we are all agreed are too high, and the 

 aim of sanitary science is to lower them until they represent gentle 

 undulations instead of billows. The crests represent mainly excess of 

 zymotic diseases, and it is on these that we must peur the oM of 

 sanitation until, if we cannot obtaio a perfect calm, we may have 

 only gentle ripples, such as those which in many places now 

 represent the enfeebled action of small-pox. Let us compare for a 

 moment visible with invisible vegetation. The seeds of thistle and 

 dandelion in a good year are produced more abundantly and start on 

 their travels. Some fall on stony ground, and perhaps get no start 

 in life, while others get into good pasture, increase and multiply. So 

 the invisible fungoid germs of zymotic disease have their good years 

 (doubtless regulated by the sun if not by his spots), but they find no 

 rest in clean, dry places ; but in dirty water, foul yards, and gutters, 

 they multiply exceedingly after their kind, or perhaps produce a more 



