IV PROCEEDINGS, APEIL. 



some minds against the use of figures. " Figures can prove anything " 

 is a current popular phrase. Mr. Johnston pointed out that even words 

 and phrases are more easily twisted to wrong uses than figures, yet, we 

 do not despair of arriving at correct conclusions by the aid of facts and 

 figures where due care, thorough investigation, and logical methods 

 are employed. As a rule, the writer said, it is not so much that the 

 results of computed figures are false, as that careless and false 

 interpretations are put upon them. Lord Derby while presiding over 

 the statistical section in 1865 happily illustrated some of the mistakes of 

 this kind by the statement that erroneous interpretations of death-rate 

 totals where abnormal causes are not taken into account ; for example 

 a year of pestilence, not only by its effect on the mortality of the 

 year of its occurrence, but by its clearing away feeble lives and so 

 lightening the death-rate in years immediately consequent. But, as 

 observed by the President of section F. of the British Association at 

 Birmingham, in September 1886, " there is less to be feared from errors 

 arising out of this source if we lay to heart the warning uttered by Mr. 

 Goschen on a recent occasion. ' Beware of totals,' and if we recognise 

 more fully than we are usually apt to do, that if a table of figures, even 

 if it be absolutely correct as a statement of facts, is merely raw material, 

 not a finished product. The misfortune is, that it is only too frequently 

 treated as the latter." Mr. Johnston continuing, pointed out that 

 tables indicating the death-rates per year of different countries are too 

 commonly treated as finished products, whereas he stated he should 

 endeavour to demonstrate that they are raw materials so far as 

 deductions relating to comparative health and sanitary condition are 

 concerned. Mr. Johnston then, in a most able manner, with the aid of 

 some very excellent diagrams, dealt with the subject under the several 

 headings, which were admirably set forth by a few figures on a black 

 board. Dividing the age groups into three — ^under 5 years, between 5 and 

 60, and over 60 — he showed that the normal proportions living at these 

 ages would be nearly as 3, 16, 1 in a division of 20, giving a mean death- 

 rate in the three divisions of 50, 7, and 70 respectively. This gives a total 

 death-rate of 16 "6. Then supposing an alteration of the division of the 

 persons living in each of these three classes to 3, 14, and 3, with even 

 an improved state of the general health, the total death-rate would be 

 increased to 19*20. Mr. Hayter had tried to get rid of this difficulty 

 by creating an absolute death-rate by assigning an arbitrary value to 

 each class, and establishing 15 classes, but this only increased the 

 difficulty, the real solution of which was to eliminate the deaths ovet 

 60. Tasmania's advantage in the large proportion of deaths of persons 

 over 60 was placed to her disadvantage by increasing her total death- 

 rate, whereas it was the strongest proof of her healthy position, In 

 concluding this very exhaustive paper, the author said he trusted that 

 the subject had been made tolerably clear by the observations he had 

 introduced, and that while the total death-rate for all ages might be 

 used locally as a fairly reliable index of the healthy sanitary condition 

 of the same place from year to year, to the meeting it had been proved 

 a most fallacious index as regards the comparative health and sanitary 

 condition of different localities, owing mainly to the extreme variability 

 in the proportions living in different places under the principal age 

 groups. The elimination of old ages, as in the health standard, has been 

 shown to be a more reliable index between different countries. As 

 regards valuations from year to year, it is to be hoped, he said, that the 

 observations made may be helpful to others in making proper deductions 

 therefrom, (Hear, iiear.) 



Dr. E. 0. GiBLiN, Health Officer of Hobart, who was called upon, 

 desired to congratulate Mr. Johnston upon the paper he had just read, 

 and to congratulate the Society upon having for one of its members a " 



