THE HAMILTON ASSOCIATION. 35 



interference, we should hear much less of attempts upon India. The 

 two supreme powers in the east are Russia and Britain. It would 

 be the wise policy, I believe, on Britain's part, to acknowledge that, 

 like her own, the Russian Empire must increase year by year, and to 

 leave to Time, the great magician, the softening and ennobling of 

 the Muscovite nature. The one and only strong argument against 

 this is the loss of Britain's prestige among the Mohammedans of 

 India if she failed to check Russia's advance or to support Turkey 

 in holding Constantinople. 



In conclusion, I am going to do a rash thing, to attempt a fore- 

 cast of the political map of Europe — a rash thing, because one 

 should not prophesy until after the event. It seems to me that 

 the present conditions point to the following results: (i) If 

 France and Germany go to war they will be so evenly matched 

 that it will be necessary for other nations to interfere in order to avert 

 mutual destruction. From such interference disarmament will natur- 

 ally ensue. (2) The Austrian Empire is the least homogeneous of 

 all European states. Its discordant elements are held together, in 

 fact, by the respect and love for the good Emperor Francis- Joseph, 

 and by fear of foreign attack. Before many years, in all probability, 

 the German part will join the German Empire, and the other parts 

 will be attracted by race affinities to surrounding nations, or else 

 will form independent states. (3) Italy will acquire the long- 

 coveted strip of Italian territory on the Adriatic Sea, with the great 

 seaport of Trieste, and the reproach of L' Italia Irredenta will have 

 lost its sting. (4) Russia will reach Constantinople, and " the sick 

 man of the east," Turkey, will at last really die, as far as Europe is 

 concerned. 



These are, at any rate, the directions in which recent move- 

 ments have pointed, viz., the unification of scattered nationalities, 

 and the drawing of lines of cleavage based on race distinctions. 



What effect on political Europe the accession of the young 

 Czar, who is said to be of a somewhat progressive mind, will have, 

 or what effect the Armenian atrocities will have, it is too early to 

 attempt to judge. But, whether these or any of these prognosti- 

 cations shall come true, one thing is reasonably certain, that far 

 in the future is the dawn of universal peace, and that not soon shall the 

 dqve return with the olive branch from her weary wanderings o'er 

 Europe's troubled sea. 



