009 BARRY, R. 1984. Possible CO. - Induced Warming Effects on the 

 Cryosphere: Climatic Changes on a Yearly to Millennial Basis . Morner and 

 Kurlen, eds . , D. Reidel Publishing Company, pp 571-604. 



Over the last few years, considerable attention has been given to the 

 possible climatic effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentra- 

 tions. The present figure of 340 p. p.m. by volume is 15 to 20 percent above 

 pre -industrial levels and a concentration of double the assumed 1860 value of 

 295 ppm has been projected by the second half of the next century due to 

 continued burning of fossil fuels (Laurmann and Rotty, 1983). Climate model- 

 ling simulations suggest that such a doubling will cause a global mean surface 

 air temperature rise of about 3.0 + 1.5 K (National Research Council, 1982), 

 with at least a two- to three-fold amplification in high latitudes. Hansen 

 et al. (1981) estimate that the post-1890s COj increase should already have 

 caused a . 5°C warming, but allowing for oceanic heat capacity and mixing 

 effects this would be reduced to . 2°C . Further modifications of climatic 

 regimes will occur through changes in precipitation and circulation 

 characteristics, although these are less well known. 



Preliminary assessments of the possible impacts of these projected cli- 

 matic perturbations on global snow and ice cover have already been reported 

 (Barry 1978; Hollin and Barry, 1979) This study updates those reports and 

 attempts to develop a composite picture from modelling results, analytical 

 projections, and analogues based on other "warm" climatic intervals. Other 

 analyses have focused primarily on the possible disappearance of the Arctic 

 pack ice (Parkinson and Kellogg, 1979; Flohn, 1982) and on the possible dis- 

 integration of the West Antarctic ice sheet and its consequences for global 

 sea-level (Mercer, 1978; Thomas et al . 1979; Young, 1981; MacDonald, 1982, 

 Bentley, 1983; Schneider and Chen, 1980). Other potential effects have 

 received much less attention. (Introduction). 



010 EARTH, M. C. and TITUS, J. G. (Editors). 1984. Greenhouse Effect and 

 Sea-Level Rise . Va. Nostrand Reinhold Company Inc., New York. 



This book estimates the magnitude of future sea-level rise, its effects, 

 and the value of policies that prepare for these consequences. The authors 

 conclude that the evidence of at least a small rise is so compelling that some 

 policy changes are warranted even today. Moreover, the consequences of a 

 larger rise that may occur and the resources that could be saved by anticipa- 

 tory actions are so great that the private and public sectors must start to 

 prepare for this possibility, even though uncertainties remain. Because 

 better predictions of future sea-level rise could enable coastal communities 

 to save billions of dollars, the authors also conclude that a substantial 

 acceleration of this research would be economically justified and is urgently 

 needed. 



This book is based on papers presented in the spring of 1983 at the con- 

 ference on sea- level rise sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection 

 Agency. Authoritative studies investigate: 



- climate sensitivity to increasing greenhouse gases 



- future sea-level rise scenarios 



