2025 sea-level will have risen by 13.7 cm (0.5 ft). In the medium sea-level 

 rise scenario, sea-level will have risen by 48.4 cm (1.6 ft) in 2025. 

 Although subsidence has historically been a major problem in Texas City, the 

 estimated rate of future subsidence for this area is insignificant, with 

 Galveston Island being essentially stable (Thompson, 1982) . 



Coastal modifications are evaluated for a range of projected sea- level 

 rates (baseline, low, medium, and high) at particular time periods (2025 and 

 2075). The objective is to determine coastal change in response to various 

 assumed sea- level increases by these particular dates. Two categories of 

 physical responses, shoreline changes and changes in storm surge levels, are 

 addressed. (Modified Abstract) . 



188 LEATHERMAN, S. P. 1986. "Shoreline Response to Sea-Level Rise: Ocean 

 City, Maryland," Proceedings of Iceland Coastal and River Symposium . 

 Reykjavik, Iceland, pp 67-276. 



This paper describes the geomorphic effects of projected sea-level rise 

 on Ocean City, a low-lying landform along the Atlantic Coast of Maryland. 

 Coastal modifications are evaluated for a range of projected sea-level rise 

 rates (baseline, mid-low, and mid-high) at particular time periods (2025, 

 2050, and 2075). The objective is to determine the shoreline change in 

 response to these assumed sea-level increases by particular dates. 



Coastal zones are inherently dynamic environments, being characterized by 

 differing geomorphic processes and coastline configurations. To account for 

 this wide variability in site and process, this study has combined analyses of 

 historical trends and empirical approaches to project changes along Ocean City 

 associated with the EPA sea- level rise scenarios. Former shoreline positions 

 portrayed on historical maps , once digitized and transformed by a 

 sophisticated shoreline mapping program (Metric Mapping; Leatherman, 1983a) , 

 form the basis for projecting potential shoreline excursion rates as a result 

 of sea-level rise. These extrapolated rates can then be assessed in light of 

 possible consequences that human modification may have on future trends. 

 (Author) . 



189 LEATHERMAN, S. P., and GAUNT, C. H. 1989. "National Assessment of 

 Beach Nourishment Requirements Associated with Accelerated Sea-Level Rise," 

 Proceedings of Coastal Zone '89 . Vol 2, 1978. 



A significant portion of the United States' population lives within the 

 coastal zone, where many buildings and facilities are located at elevations 

 less than ten ft above sea- level. These structures are presently vulnerable 

 to storm damage, a hazard that may grow more severe as greenhouse- induced 

 global warming is expected to cause unprecedented rates of sea- level rise in 

 the future. Despite those potential hazards, the coastal population is 

 burgeoning. Beachfront property is some of the most valuable real estate in 

 the country, often exceeding $10,000 per linear ft of shoreline along the U.S. 

 mid-Atlantic coast. A lull in hurricane activity in this area since the 

 1960 's has lead to a false sense of security and spurred this tremendous 

 investment in coastal property. Although most coastal areas have been spared 



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