sea- level and these fields in the intraseasonal frequency band suggests that 

 the observed oscillation may be a coastally propagating response to remote 

 processes in the equatorial Pacific waveguide. (Authors). 



330 SPOERI, R. K.. ZAHAWA. C. F., and COULOMBE, B. 1985. "Statistical 

 Modeling of Historic Shore Erosion Rates on the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland," 

 Environmental Geology Water Sciences . Vol 7, No. 3, pp 171-187. 



Few strong relationships exist along the Chesapeake Bay shoreline be- 

 tween the historic erosion rate and the distribution of any of several coastal 

 parameters which were defined and tested using traditional regression and dis- 

 criminant analysis procedures. To develop a simple predictive equation for 

 shore erosion that could be used by coastal managers, the entire Chesapeake 

 Bay shoreline was partitioned into naturally occurring reaches 2-5 km in 

 length, and the historic erosion rate on each reach was modelled as a function 

 of five variables: (a) shoreline type, (b) "100-year" storm surge height, 

 (c) mean tide range, (d) wave climate, and (e) potential littoral drift rate. 

 The statistical analysis yielded a multiple correlation coefficient (r^) of 

 30.8%, discriminant analysis showed only the first two variables listed above 

 are useful predictors (i.e., statistically significant) of historic erosion 

 rates. A 95 -mile portion of the same bay shoreline in Queen Anne's and Talbot 

 counties was then partitioned into shorter reach lengths (1/2-2 km) and more 

 variables were included. The multiple correlation coefficient (r^) improved 

 slightly to 32.9%, but only shoreline type and potential littoral drift rate 

 were found to be useful predictors of historic erosion rates. Curiously, the 

 ability to model statistically the historic shore erosion rate is best on 

 those reaches already substantially protected by structures. For Queen Anne's 

 and Talbot counties, the multiple regression coefficient improved to 61.5% 

 when only reaches 1/2-2 km in length protected by structures were considered. 

 (Authors) . 



331 STANLEY, D. J. 1988. "Subsidence in the Northeastern Nile Delta: 

 Rapid Rates, Possible Causes, and Consequences," Science . Vol 240, pp 497-500. 



Holocene fluvial and marine deposits have accumulated in a graben-like 

 structure on the northeastern margin of the Nile delta. This part of the 

 delta, which includes Lake Manzala, Port Said, and the northern Suez Canal, 

 has subsided rapidly at rates of up to 0.5 cm/year since about 7500 years ago. 

 This subsidence has diverted at least four major distributaries of the Nile 

 River into this region. The combined effects of continued subsidence and sea- 

 level rise may flood a large part of the northern delta plain by as much as 1 

 m by the year 2100. The impact of continued subsidence, now occurring when 

 sediment input along the coast has been sharply reduced because of the Aswan 

 High Dam, is likely to be substantial, particularly in the Port Said area and 

 as far inland as south of Lake Manzala. (Author). 



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