of environmental changes are known. Periodic observation of the area 

 by aircraft or satellite is probably the most desirable method for 

 detecting newly formed systems. Once detected, progress of the sys- 

 tem can be predicted by means of a moderate increase in present syn- 

 optic bathythermograph (BATHY) and sea siorface temperature (CTEM) 

 reports . 



The time lags between any given rainfall period, subsequent 

 discharge from Chesapeake Bay, and advection offshore are unknown. 

 Comparison of Chesapeake Bay discharge with temperature-salinity 

 relations at Chesapeake Light Station and with the estimated volume 

 in the tongue advected seaward between Cape Henry and False Cape 

 would be necessary to determine the lag. Once the time lag is 

 known, prediction should be possible by monitoring bay discharge 

 and comparing it with prevailing water conditions. 



Where external oceanic processes do not affect local conditions, 

 prediction will be greatly simplified. During winter, when the ver- 

 tical temperature profile is essentially isothermal, prediction of 

 trends in the thermal structure is possible under most conditions. 

 For example, near-surface negative temperature gradients can be 

 expected under conditions favorable to surface heating (clear skies, 

 air temperature greater than SST, li^t winds). Similarly, intru- 

 sion of relatively warm oceanic water should be expected to form a 

 positive gradient near the bottom during periods of sustained south- 

 erly winds. The thickness and magnitudes of the gradients, however, 

 cannot be predicted with accuracy. 



Further investigation will be required before desired accuracy 

 of prediction can be achieved, A survey was conducted in September 

 and October 1967 to investigate the temporal and spatial distribu- 

 tion of the warm water in the southeastern quadrant. In addition, 

 several ART flights were made over the survey area. Periodic ART 

 flights over the area and additional ship surveys will be necessary 

 for improving predictions. 



CONCLUSIONS 



1, Oceanographic conditions observed during the investigation 

 of February- March 1967 changed gradually between Phases I and II. 

 Transient negative temperature gradients in the near-surface layer 

 during the initial occupation of eight oceanographic stations 

 probably resulted from diurnal heating. Destruction of the nega- 

 tive thermocline occurred under conditions less favorable for sur- 

 face heating. The mixed subsurface layer was modified by intrusion 

 of warmer, more saline oceanic water along the bottom. 



