ABSTRACT 



Procedures used to evaluate a computerized numerical wave 

 prediction program are described. Since the model input is the 

 forecast wind, periods corresponding to known wave growth and 

 decay at Ocean Stations 'A', T, 'J', and 'K' and at ARGUS IS- 

 LAND Tower were selected to evaluate its response. Wave fore- 

 casts for 12, 30, and 36-hour periods are compared statistically 

 to Tucker meter and the ARGUS ISLAND wave staff measure- 

 ments. Comparisons of results using both U. S. Weather Bureau 

 and Fleet Numerical Weather Central wind fields as input data 

 are shown. The evaluation indicates that the forecasts are with- 

 in a reasonable degree of accuracy for forecast intervals up to 

 36 hours. This basic model which represents another step for- 

 ward in the state-of-the-art is expected to offer a considerable 

 improvement in wave forecasts during the next decade. 



DONALD C. BUNTING 



LIONEL I. MOSKOWITZ 



Ocean Dynamics Branch 



Exploratory Oceanography Division 



Research and Development Department 



