An understanding of the changes taking place in a beach environment requires 

 the sorting out and ranking in importance of the various processes acting upon each 

 of the environmental factors being analyzed. Also required is a knowledge of the 

 time lag between the inception of a group of "processes" and the moment of their 

 maximum effect on the "response" being analyzed. 



The approach to these two problems followed in this study involves the use 

 of some 27 variables of the beach-ocean-atmosphere system at Virginia Beach, Virginia. 

 The sorting out and ranking of the variables in a given analysis is approached through 

 linear and quadratic multiregresslon analysis, as programmed for high-speed computers. 

 One of the variables in the system is selected as the dependent variable and studied 

 in relation to several controlling independent variables, by taking the latter one at 

 a time, two at a time, and so on until all of the independent variables are included 

 simultaneously. Thus the technique of sequential mult iregression analysis is the 

 tool used in the investigation. In addition, the dependent variable at time to is 

 studied in its relation to the independent variables as measured at successive lag 

 periods t]^, t2, , backwards in time. 



This report was prepared by Wyman Harrison, formerly Associate Professor of 

 Marine Science, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, in pursuance of Contract 

 DA-49-055-CIV-ENG-64-5 with the Coastal Engineering Research Center, in collabora- 

 tion with W. C. Krumbein, Professor of Geology, Northwestern University, and 

 consultant to the Coastal Engineering Research Center. 



This study was supported by the Coastal Engineering Research Center (formerly 

 the Beach Erosion Board of the Corps of Engineers), under the general supervision of 

 J. V. Hall, Jr., G. M. Watts, and N. E. Taney, of the Engineering Development Division. 

 The Computing Centers at Northwestern University and the College of William and Mary 

 extended every cooperation. Programs used in the analysis were largely developed with 

 supporting funds from the Geography Branch of the Office of Naval Research, under 

 general supervision of Evelyn Pruitt and R. A. Alexander. Betty Benson of the North- 

 western Computing Center was most helpful in developing the IBM 709 computer programs 

 used in the study, and R. Libutti and J. Curran of IBM aided in rewriting her programs 

 for use on the 1620 computer. 



The Virginia Beach City Engineer, C. Kiley, and his assistant, A. Gregg, aided 

 by laying groundwork for the field studies. The following graduate students of the 

 Virginia Institute of Marine Science aided in sampling: D. R. Tuck, Jr., M. P. Lynch, 

 R. Morales-Alamo, R. B. Stone, and W. S. Wilson; C. Kyte of Antioch College, N. 

 Peterson of Hofstra College, and G. Williamson of Old Dominion College also aided in 

 field work and data reduction. Wave data were furnished by the Research Division of 

 the Coastal Engineering Research Center. The U. S. Army Transportation Corps, Fort 

 Story, Virginia, provided amphibious support for overwater sampling. Weather data 

 were supplied by the U. S. Weather Bureau Station at Fort Story and tide data were 

 furnished by the U. S. Coast and Geodetic Survey. D. R. Tuck, Jr. and R. Barnes, 

 Virginia Institute of Marine Science, were in charge of data reduction. 



The authors are indebted to the following colleagues for critical review of 

 the manuscript: Douglas Inman of Scripps Institution of Oceanography: Per Bruun of 

 the University of Florida; and Arthur Brebner and Ian White of Queen's University 

 (Ontario). The freedom and encouragement given to Wyman Harrison in this study by 

 William J. Hargis, Jr., Director of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, is 

 most gratefully acknowledged. 



An addendum to this report represents a cooperative effort between the U. S. 

 Coast and Geodetic Survey, the U. S. Weather Bureau, and the U. S. Army Coastal 

 Engineering Research Center, in the general area of research on coastal vulnerability. 

 Time for the research was granted by the U. S. Coast and Geodetic Survey to Wyman 

 Harrison in his capacity as Chief of the Marine Geology Section and by the U. S. 

 Weather Bureau to Arthur Pore in his capacity as a member of the Storm Surge Unit of 

 the Office of Meteorological Research. 



This report is published under authority of Public Law 166, 79th Congress, 

 approved July 31, 1945, as supplemented by Public Law 172, 88th Congress, approved 

 7 November 1963. 



