while accretion increases to the north (reach 1 = 14. 6 -percent accretion, 

 reach 3 = 44.4-percent accretion). Overall, the barrier island geomorphic 

 zone is spatially dominated by erosion (44.5 percent) over the long term (Fig- 

 ure 52). Approximately 25.7 percent of the barrier island coastline is 

 accreting, and 29.8 percent can be considered stable. Magnitude of average 

 and maximum shoreline changes and variability in shoreline changes are large 

 in this geomorphic zone. 



113. The cuspate delta geomorphic zone is composed entirely of reach 5. 

 Within this zone, erosion predominated (54.5 percent) at most locations (Fig- 

 ure 42) . Approximately one quarter of the shoreline in reach 5 was stable 

 (21.4 percent) and one quarter was accreting (24.1 percent). This zone is 

 very similar in overall behavior to the barrier island zone. 



114. Reaches 6 and 7 west of Cape Fear River compose the arcuate 

 strand geomorphic zone, which is very different from the barrier island or 

 cuspate delta zones (Figure 52) . Long-term analysis of shoreline changes 

 reveals most of the arcuate strand is stable (86.9 percent of shoreline has 

 less than ±1 m/yr change). Accretion (7.3 percent) slightly outweighs erosion 

 (5.8 percent) in the remainder of shoreline. Clearly, the factors controlling 

 long-term shoreline changes are different between the arcuate strand and geo- 

 morphic zones to the south. The arcuate strand is most similar in shoreline 

 response to reach 4; Bull Bay, which had 82.2 percent of its shoreline in the 

 stable classification (Figure 38). 



115. Summarizing transect data over the entire study area for the 

 entire range of surveys available, approximately half the coastline is stable, 

 31.3 percent is eroding in excess of 1 m/yr, while 18 percent is accreting 

 seaward (Figure 53) . Variability in erosion and accretion is greatest at 

 inlets. Most shoreline has changed less than 400 m over the 130-year span of 

 data. Changes in excess of 1,000 m are relatively unusual. 



116. In summary, this analysis indicates two primary types of histori- 

 cal shoreline changes: those associated with barrier islands and tidal inlets 

 and those associated with continuous mainland beach. The former is dynamic 

 and closely dependent on local changes at inlets. The latter, being freed 

 from inlet disturbances, is mildly dynamic, but with little long-term net 

 change . 



101 



