Jelesnianski (1972) has calculated the open coast surge for 

 Hurricane Camilla with a full two-dimensional mathematical model. The 

 maximum surge envelope along the coast, based on computations from this 

 model, is shown in Figure 3-56 where the zero distance corresponds to 

 the point of landfall of the hurricane eye. This figure shows that 

 the peak surge estimated by this method is about 25+ feet MSL. 



Thus, by three independent estimates, it has been found that the peak 

 surge is about 25 feet MSL which corresponds approximately to that 

 observed (U.S. Geological Survey) at Pass Christian, Mississippi of 

 24.2 feet MSL. It would be expected that a slightly higher peak water 

 elevation occurred because Pass Christian is located a few miles left of 

 the position where the maximum winds made landfall. 



It is rare that such a close agreement is found when estimating the 

 peak surge with these dissimilar models. Normally, because of the 

 difference in these predictive schemes, it can be expected that peak 

 surge estimates may deviate by as much as 25 percent. For well- 

 formulated schemes properly applied, there is usually a trade-off 

 between reliability of the estimate and the computational effort. 



************************************* 



(c) Predicting Surge for Storms other than Hurricanes . 

 Although the basic equations for water motion in response to atmospheric 

 stresses are equally valid for nonhurricane tropical and extratropical 

 storms, the structures of these storms are not nearly so simple as that 

 of a hurricane. Because the storms display much greater variability in 

 structure, it is difficult to derive a proper wind field. Moreover, no 

 system of classifying these storms by parameters has been developed 

 similar to hurricane classification by such parameters as radius to 

 maximum winds, forward motion of the storm center, and central pressure. 



Criteria however have been established for a Standard Project North- 

 easter for the New England coast north of Cape Cod as given by Peterson 

 and Goodyear (1964). Specific standard-project storms other than hurri- 

 canes are not presently available for other coastal locations. Estimates 

 of design-stoim wind fields can be made by meteorologists working directly 

 with climatological weather maps, and by use of statistical wind records 

 on land and assuming that they blow toward shore for a significant dura- 

 tion over a long, straight line fetch. 



Once the wind field is determined, estimation of the storm surge may 

 be determined by methods based on the complete basic formulas or the quasi- 

 static method given. The nomogram method cannot be used, since this scheme 

 is based on the hurricane parameters. 



(2) Storm Surge in Enclosed Basins . An example of an inclined 

 water surface caused by wind shearing stresses over an enclosed body of 

 water occurred during passage of the hurricane of 26-27 August 1949 over 

 the northern part of Lake Okeechobee, Florida. After the lake level was 

 inclined by the wind, the wind direction shifted 180° in 3 hours, resulting 



3-126 



