PROBLEM 



Develop statistical, physical, and computer techniques for interpreting, 

 summarizing, and extrapolating oceanic and meteorologic data for reliable esti- 

 mation of the sound velocity distribution in the ocean. Specifically, determine 

 the length of time-series necessary to produce reliable long-time estimates of sea- 

 surface temperatures; and, as a corollary, find whether or not systematic varia- 

 tions of sea-surface temperatures, over periods of several years, are to be ex- 

 pected. 



RESULTS 



1. Using autocorrelation and regression techniques, six time-series of 

 sea-surface temperature measurements were examined. 



2. Plots of the 100R 2 statistic (percent variance explained by regres- 

 sion) as a function of time-series record length for the six time-series records 

 considered lead to the conclusion that record lengths of 8 to 10 years are neces- 

 sary to obtain reliable long-time estimates of sea-surface temperature. This 

 conclusion is supported by the behavior of the autocorrelation coefficients for 

 the 40-year Scripps Pier record. 



3. An examination of the annual average temperatures confirmed pre- 

 viously published conclusions regarding the systematic year-to-year variability 

 in sea-surface temperatures. In addition it showed that such long-term vari- 

 ability is not unusual or unexpected. 



ADMINISTRATIVE INFORMATION 



Work was performed under SR 104 03 01, Task 0586 (NEL L40571). The 

 report covers work from July 1961 to August 1964 and was approved for publica- 

 tion 17 January 1967. 



The assistance of Dr. George W. Snedecor, in providing motivation, en- 

 couragement, and advice; of Mrs. J. M. Baker, J. S. Buehler, and H. W. Frye, for 

 numerical analysis assistance; and of Mrs. G. L. Jones, for handling the many 

 details essential to the success of such a study, is gratefully acknowledged. 



REVERSE SIDE BLANK 



MBL/WHOI 



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