SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 



Using autocorrelation and regression techniques, six time-series of sea- 

 surface temperature measurements were examined to determine the length of time- 

 series necessary for obtaining reliable estimates of sea-surface temperature and 

 to determine whether or not systematic variations of annual average sea-surface 

 temperatures over periods of several years is to be expected. 



Plots of the 100R 2 statistic (percent variance explained by regression) as 

 a function of time-series record length for the six time-series records considered 

 lead to the conclusion that record lengths of 8 to 10 years are necessary to obtain 

 reliable long-time estimates of sea-surface temperature. Additional support for 

 this conclusion was obtained from an examination of the behavior of the auto- 

 correlation coefficients for the 40-year Scripps Pier record. 



An examination of the annual average temperatures confirmed previously 

 published conclusions regarding the systematic year-to-year variability in sea- 

 surface temperatures. In addition it showed that such long-term variability is not 

 unusual or unexpected. 



REFERENCES 



1. Navy Electronics Laboratory Report 1256. Sea-Surface Temperature 

 Estimation: An Empirical Study of the Effect of Missing Data on Regression 

 and Autocorrelation Analyses of Time Series of Data , by C. J. Van Vliet, 



5 January 1965 



2. Navy Electronics Laboratory Report, Sea-Surface Temperature Estimation - 



Use of Regression Models For Time-Space Interpolation of Sea-Surface 

 Temperature Observations, by E. R. Anderson (In preparation) 



3. Navy Electronics Laboratory Report 1427, Sea-Surface Temperature 

 Estimation - Autocorrelation, Regression, and Trend Analyses of Six Sea- 

 Surface Temperature Time-Series , by C. J. Van Vliet and E. R. Anderson, 

 17 January 1967 



4. Kendall, M. G. and Stuart, A., The Advanced Theory of Statistics , v. 2, 

 p. 341, Hafner Publishing Company, 1961 



5. Sette, 0. E. and Isaacs, J. D., "Symposium on 'The Changing Pacific Ocean 

 in 1957 and 1958' (Part ID," California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries 

 Investigations Reports , v. 7, p. 13-217, 1960 



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