TABLE 6. STATISTICAL FIT OF ANNUAL AND SEMIANNUAL 

 OSCILLATIONS. F-RATIOS ATTRIBUTABLE TO SEMIANNUAL OSCILLATION 



Location 



R' 



Oo 



(^D 



^D* 



F-ratio 



F-ratio* 



Po.oi 



PAPA 



0.92 



2.99 



0.84 



0.97 



65 



49 



4.6 



ECHO 



0.93 



2.98 



0.81 



0.96 



55 



39 



4.6 



Cape St. James 



0.82 



2.19 



0.93 



1.02 



24 



20 



4.6 



Triple Island 



0.84 



2.49 



1.00 





22 





4.6 



Langara Island 



0.80 



2.31 



1.04 



1.10 



3.8 



3.4 



4.6 



Scripps Pier 



0.77 



2.63 



1.27 





4.8 





4.6 



*Adiusted for nonrandom missing data. 



The addition of semiannual oscillatory terms to the regression equation 

 improves the fit obtained with the annual terms. Except for Langara Island, the 

 F-ratios are still significant at the 1 percent level, but are much smaller than 

 for annual terms. Because of the marginal significance for Scripps Pier, the 

 question of whether the assumptions about the residuals are satisfied is more 

 pertinent. 



TREND ANALYSIS 



If the surface temperature for each year could be represented by a single 

 quantity, it might be possible to identify a trend (gradual change in the system) 

 over a period of several years. The regression analysis of the time-series pro- 

 vides in ^0 an estimate of the yearly average of the surface temperature. Figure 

 6 is a plot of the ^o's obtained by fitting equation (2) to each calendar year of 

 data taken at four locations. 



The statistical method chosen to test for trends is that of the theory of 

 runs." The test is one for randomness in a sequence of observations. The only 

 underlying assumption is that the variable under consideration be continuous. 

 The test is performed as follows. The median value for each sequence of jSo's 

 is determined. Each j8o is assigned the letter A if it is above the median or the 

 letter B if it is below the median, the median ^o being omitted. A run is defined 

 as a succession of one or more identical letters. The following sequences of runs 

 are obtained. 



22 



