2.0. ANALYSIS 
2.1.0. Security Environment Factors 
The foltowing three categories of security environment factors each 
include citations from reports by CILTS, the Hudson Institute and the 
Center for Naval Warfare Studies. This arrangement enables an overview 
of the national security environment as assessed by these three sources 
in terms of U.S. national strategy and the forward basing issue. Analy- 
sis of the future security environment provides strategic factors which 
lead to formulation of alternative system concepts and threat factors 
that describe the environment within which to evaluate and compare 
alternatives. The impact of security environment factors is reflected 
in subsequent sections of this report where they are applied according 
to the flow diagram of Appendix B. 
2.1.1. Political and Strategic 
The report of the President's Commission on Integrated Long-Term 
Strategy, Discriminate Deterrence, enunciates the United States' grand 
strategy quite simply: forward deployment of American forces, assigned 
to oppose invading armies and backed by strong reserves and a capability 
to use strategic weapons if necessary. The Commission recognizes trends 
in the nation's security environment which, if allowed to continue with- 
out compensatory measures, would place U.S. vital interests in severe 
jeopardy and eventually threaten national survival. 
The doctrine of mobility and flexibility underlies the CILTS 
report. The following selected citations from that report are descrip- 
tive of the future security environment and are germane to justification 
of requirements for modularized ocean basing functions: 
(a) Major U.S. interests will continue to be threatened 
at fronts much closer to our adversaries than to the United 
States. Our ability to deter aggression at these distant 
places will be impaired by uncertainty about allies and 
friends granting us access to bases and overflight rights, or 
joining us in defense preparations to respond to ambiguous 
warning signals. 
