CONTENTS 



Page 



PREFACE 1 



CONVERSION FACTORS, NON-SI TO SI (METRIC) UNITS OF MEASUREMENT 3 



PART I : INTRODUCTION 4 



Terminology 7 



Overview of Project Technique 8 



Organization of Report 10 



PART II: PROBABILITY MODEL 11 



Choosing Storm Surge Time-Histories 12 



Creating Synthetic Surge Plus Tide Events 14 



Selecting Events to Model 15 



PART III : STORM SURGE PLUS TIDE SIMULATION 23 



Grid Development 23 



Wind Forcing 24 



Data Collection 25 



Model Calibration 25 



Model Verification 30 



Simulation of Event Ensemble by the Hydrodynamic Model 30 



PART IV : WAVE MODELING 38 



WIS Methods and Data 40 



Phase III Methodology 40 



Use of Phase III Methodology for Broad Sound Wave 



Climate Simulations 41 



Wave Climate Simulations for Broad Sound 42 



ESCUBED Results 44 



Locally Generated Waves in the Lee of Nahant Peninsula 44 



PART V: FLOOD STAGES FOR THE INTERIOR OF R0UGHANS POINT 50 



Overtopping Rate Calculation 55 



Flood Routing 57 



Simulation of the Event Ensemble by the Flood Routing Model 63 



North Wall Tests 64 



PART VI : STAGE-FREQUENCY CURVES 66 



PART VII : RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS 68 



Roughans Point 68 



Still-Water Locat ions 72 



Estimating Error in the Frequency Curves 82 



Determining Error Bands for the Selection Process 85 



Assessing the Impact of the Standard Project Northeaster 89 



Conclusions 92 



REFERENCES 94 



