much as ±15 ft. Because the surveys were not performed exactly at the date of purchase of the 

 property, additional uncertainty is introduced. Given these inconsistencies, shoreline-position 

 variability associated with interpolation and variability along the beach is estimated to be ±30 ft. 



In summary, seasonal changes and inconsistencies between purchase dates and times of 

 available surveys must be considered for quantifying and interpreting the significance of 

 shoreline-position change at a site, particularly as it relates to the MHW property boundary. In 

 analyzing data from different seasons that bracket the property purchase date, one can expect 

 variation in shoreline position on the order of ±45 ft (total rms error for combined errors from 

 seasonal variability, interpolation between profiles, and longshore variability in the beach). 



3.3. Long-Term Shoreline Change 



This section describes measurements and calculations of shoreline change for two time 

 periods, the pre-Harbor time period represented by 1877 to 1948 and the post-Harbor period 

 represented by 1948 to 1996. These measurements are referenced to the HWL (See Chapter 2). 



3.3.1. Shoreline Change prior to Harbor Construction (1877 to 1948) 



The earliest shoreline surveys prior to Harbor construction include an initial field survey 

 conducted in 1877 and aerial photographic surveys completed in April 1928 and April 1948. 

 Although property ownership by the plaintiffs did not begin until the early 1950s, an assessment 

 of shoreline response prior to this time is necessary to evaluate the impact of Harbor construction 

 on beach evolution. For the periods 1877 to 1928 and 1877 to 1948, the shoreline extending 

 from 12,000 ft north of the Harbor to approximately 35,000 ft south of the Harbor showed 

 advance (Figure 3-2). However, the shoreline south of this point to Sebastian Inlet receded and 

 advanced independent of the Harbor. The rate of change varies between the two time periods. 



Greatest variation in beach response occurs north of the Harbor, adjacent to Cape Canaveral 

 shoals. This area receives substantial quantities of sand from the north through southerly 

 directed longshore transport that supplied large quantities of sand to southern beaches in Brevard 

 County. Between 1877 and 1928, shoreline advance along beaches within 30,000 ft south of the 

 Harbor occurred at rates ranging from approximately to 8 ft/year. Although the direction of 

 shoreline movement between 1877 and 1948 had the same trend as for the period 1877 to 1928, 

 the magnitude of change decreased slightly within the first 7,000 ft south of the Harbor. 



Chapter 3 Assessment of Coastal Change 3-5 



