Uncertainty in Static 

 Environmental Loads 



Uncertainty in Hardware 

 Specifications, Description 



N.X" 



Errors from 

 Approximations 

 (Catenaries, etc.) 



DESMOOR 



PSSM 



No Significant 

 Model Errors 



Uncertainty in 

 Dynamic Environ- 

 mental Loads 



Cumulative Uncertainty 

 in Static Model Results 



Uncertainty in 

 Slowly Varying 

 Drift Forces 



Uncertainty in Vessel 



Hydrodynamic 



Characteristics 



Uncertainty from 

 Linearizations 



DESMOOR r 



Total Cumulative 

 Uncertainty in 

 Simulation Results 



Uncertainty from use 

 of Factor of Safety 

 Instead of Dynamic 

 Analysis 



Uncertainty in 

 Evaluation Criteria 



Risk/Payoff 



Relative System 

 Reliability /Performance 



Figure 3. Mooring system evaluation using CEL computer models. 



