PART VI: CONCLUSION 



20. Elena reached Category 3 status on the Simpson-Saf f ir Scale of Hur- 

 ricane Intensity which ranges from a minimum of 1 to a maximum of 5. However, 

 during the 3 days prior to landfall, most of the northern and, at times, some 

 of the eastern portions of the hurricane were overland. Consequently, by the 

 time Elena made landfall near Gulfport, Miss., where gusts of 121 mph were re- 

 corded, gusts of only 51 mph were reported at Slidell, La., just 38 miles to 

 the west. This occurrence indicates that hurricane force winds were probably 

 confined to a relatively small area near the eye of the storm which helps ex- 

 plain the relatively low surge values recorded in Mobile Bay. Comparison with 

 1979 hurricane Frederic, also a Category 3, shows a value of 8,0 ft MSL was 

 recorded at the Mobile gage location, greater than twice the value recorded 

 during Elena. Moreover, the maximum gusts for both hurricanes were recorded 

 at Dauphin Island, Ala., 142 mph during Frederic and 136 mph during Elena, a 

 difference of only 6 mph. Other factors which probably contributed to the 

 lower surge values in Mobile Bay were differences in track and forward speed 

 between Elena and Frederic. The track of Frederic was more northerly and just 

 to the west of Mobile Bay at the time it moved inland as compared with Elena. 

 The forward speed of Elena was significantly greater than that of Frederic 

 during the 12 hr just prior to landfall. 



21. Heavy rainfall resulting from Elena occurred in central to northern 

 Florida along a stretch from Tampa to Tallahassee, Fla. This reach of coast- 

 line coincides with the area affected by the hurricane while it was nearly 

 stationary during the period 31 August to 2 September 1985. Conversely, 

 exceptionally heavy rainfall was not reported about the time of landfall al- 

 though heavy rainfall did occur in Arkansas after the hurricane went inland. 

 It is reasonable to conclude, therefore, that coastal flooding which occurred 

 in the area of landfall was primarily because of surge effects. 



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