domains, namely a section of the continental shelf extending from 

 shore to the shelf break at about the 200 m depth contour and 

 extending several hundred kilometers along shore on either side of 

 the coastal location for which surge prediction is sought. A second 

 problem with such models is that of specifying appropriate boundary 

 conditions at the open boundaries, particularly along the seaward 

 shelf break positions. A common seaward boundary condition is to set 

 the water level along the shelf break equal to the static 

 barometrically-induced anomaly appropriate to the position relative 

 to the hurricane center. However, this ignores any dynamically- 

 induced water level anomaly by the storm in the deep region of the 

 sea or Gulf. 



2. Objectives 



There are three objectives of this research effort. First, the 

 investigation is directed toward establishing the cause as well as 

 the time and space scales of forerunners in the Gulf of Mexico. 

 Second, the relation between hurricane generated barotropic and 

 baroclinic modes and forerunners is sought. Third, the clarification 

 of conditions at the shelf break is addressed. All of these 

 objectives will be carried out within the framework of a basin wide 

 model which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Cayman Sea. 



