smaller space scales compared to the gravity modes. 



The development of forerunners in the Gulf might be caused by 

 the strong baroclinic response of the sea to hurricane winds. 

 Stevenson and Armstrong (1965) and Leipper (1967) presented 

 descriptions of hurricane induced upwelling in the Gulf and provided 

 qualitative depictions of the causative mechanisms. Oceanic 

 baroclinic responses to hurricane forcing have been the subject of 

 numerous theoretical and numerical investigations (Ichiye, 1955). In 

 addition, Veronis and Stommel (1956) speculated that a two-layer 

 ocean with constant depth would exhibit a baroclinic response to a 

 distant storm. However, changes in the interface elevation would be 

 small provided that there were no other effects such as resonance. 

 The only noticeable effect would be changes in the free surface 

 anomaly contributed by barotropic Rossby waves. 



The single study on forerunner surges in the Gulf by Cline 

 (1920) leaves several fundamental questions unanswered. It is not 

 clear that all hurricanes traversing the Gulf generate forerunners. 

 If not, under which conditions are forerunners excited? What are the 

 time and space scales of forerunners? Conflicting evidence suggests 

 both local and Gulf wide occurrences. Finally, are forerunners 

 barotropic or baroclinic in origin? To date, only the barotropic 

 response on the perimeter of the Gulf to hurricane forcing has been 

 sufficiently studied. 



As already pointed out, the forerunner questions are important 

 in establishing initial conditions in hurricane surge prediction at 

 the coastline. Most hurricane surge models employ limited area 



