respectively. Comparisons of the tjq hydrographs between HUR5 and 

 HUR2 and also between HUR6 and HUR3, reveal that the largest 

 differences occur in the early stages of the simulations. This is 

 the same result obtained from similar comparisons between the HURl 

 and HUR4 Gulf -wide modes. 



Important results from the PATHl simulations are summarized as 

 follows. The initial rise of water level before the peak surge at 

 Galveston exists in all cases. This rise matches the first peak of 

 the Gulf -wide oscillation, tjq, which occurs simultaneously around the 

 Gulf. Periods of tjq vary between 28 h to 30 h. The effects of storm 

 size (Rjnax^ ^^® ^° increase both the peak surge at the coast and the 

 magnitude of tjq. On the contrary, the effect of the storm forward 

 speed is to increase only the peak surge at the coast (for the same 

 size storms). Accordingly, for the remaining storm tracks (PATH2 

 through PATHS) only one simulation for each path using a storm of 30 

 km Rjii33j and 25 km/h forward speed was made. 



A peak surge of 4.4 m at grid point (23,46) near SW Pass, 

 Louisiana, is obtained from the PATH2 (HUR7) simulation. The nearest 

 station to this point is Grand Isle which is situated to the east. 

 The time history of the computed water levels at this station is 

 shown in Fig. 76. The highest computed water level at Grand Isle 

 occurs a few hours earlier than the true peak surge (at grid point 

 23,46) while the first maximum in this hydrograph coincides with the 

 first extreme of tjq. The sequential occurrence of the two peaks 

 resemble the situation at Galveston in the PATHl simulations. The tjq 

 hydrograph shown in Fig. 77 indicates the first maximum of 0.2 m with 



132 



