CHAPTER V 

 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 



A time-dependent, numerical, normal mode model portraying the 

 linear (except for dissipation) physics of a two layer Gulf of Mexico 

 has been developed, tested and verified. Comparisons of the 

 numerical hydrographs and the known local responses produced by 

 hurricanes Carla and Allen generally verify the barotropic surge 

 response within the Gulf of Mexico. Those significant deviations 

 which occur can be explained by unique gauge locations, 

 insufficiently resolved model renditions of the coastline and 

 bathymetry, and possible inaccuracies in the stipulated atmospheric 

 forcing fields. The model was used to obtain the responses of the 

 Gulf to a series of synthetic storms. These responses provided 

 information which were used to answer basic questions on forerunner 

 surges in the Gulf and related aspects of the surge prediction 

 problem. These questions concerned the influence of baroclinic 

 motions on the nearshore surge, the establishment of forerunners and 

 the time and space scales of this initial rise in water level, and 

 surge conditions at the shelf break. 



Results from the simulations of the pure barotropic and the' two 

 mode models of HUR5 (a synthetic storm with 30 km radius of maximum 

 wind translating at 35 km/h from the Cayman Sea through Yucatan 

 Strait and landfalls at Corpus Christi, PATHl) demonstrate the 

 insignificant contribution of the baroclinic responses to the water 

 levels on the shelf areas. The maximum surges in particular are 



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