SHORELINE CHANGE MODELING AS A TOOL IN THE PLANNING PROCESS 



Elements of the Planning Process 



This section discusses the role of shoreline change numerical modeling in 

 the overall process of planning, design, construction, and evaluation of 

 project performance. The material addresses the question of how a shoreline 

 change model fits in the decision process of coastal management. The purpose 

 of such planning is to determine the most effective socio-economic engineering 

 solution to a shore protection problem. The planning process consists of the 

 following steps: 



a. Formulate problem statement, identify constraints, and develop 

 criteria for judging the performance of the project. 



b. Assemble and analyze relevant data. 



c. Determine project alternatives. 



d. Evaluate alternatives. (Return to Step a, as necessary) 



e. Select and optimize project design. 



f. Construct the project. 



g. Monitor the project. 



h. Evaluate the project according to Step a and report the results. 



These steps and their interrelation are shown diagrammatically in Fig. 3, 

 in which stages in the planning process where modeling can take an active role 

 are designated with the word "model" in parentheses. 



Step a . A clear problem statement and criteria for judging the project 

 design (including the advantages /disadvantages of design alternatives) must be 

 developed to determine in an objective manner the success or failure of the 

 project. The problem statement and judgment criteria should be explicit. 

 Otherwise, passage of time between project planning and the performance 

 evaluation may obscure the original purpose, and project functioning may be 

 evaluated out of context. 



The problem statement and judgment criteria will usually encompass several 

 factors, including local and regional considerations. This is called 

 comprehensive planning , as opposed to single-project planning . For example, 

 suppose a section of road along a coast is threatened by erosion. One pos- 

 sible problem statement is that erosion is endangering major resources between 



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